Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 101653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101653
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-101800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC...ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101653Z - 101800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING FROM
SERN VA INTO ERN SC.  HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS
REGION.

DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS NOTED ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM
AT 16Z..  EXPANDING/DEEPENING CU FIELD IS NOW OBSERVED ACROSS ERN SC
INTO PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY AND IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL SOON BEGIN TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.  FARTHER NORTH...ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
EVOLVED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED
STEEP LAPSE RATES/MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS.  WDSSII MESH ALGORITHM
SUGGESTS AT LEAST GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IS NOTED WITH TSTM CLUSTER OVER
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY VA.  GIVEN THE MODEST SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS IT
APPEARS MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE.

..DARROW/WEISS.. 07/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

LAT...LON   34068018 36287826 36937715 37097573 35967588 33367885
            34068018



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