Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 060145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060145
SDZ000-NEZ000-060315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/N-CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391...

VALID 060145Z - 060315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES
ACROSS WW 391. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
ACROSS S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AS OF 01Z INDICATE A SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS WW 391 FROM SW TO NE...WITH POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD POSE A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL RISK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS IT MOVES ENEWD. FURTHER E ACROSS S-CNTRL SD...INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO
A BOWING CLUSTER MOVING ESEWD INTO AN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE
SWD MOVING COLD FRONT...THIS BOWING CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWD INTO S-CNTRL
SD/N-CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY GROWS FURTHER UPSCALE INTO A MCS LATER
THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
BOWING CLUSTER GIVEN ELY SFC WINDS VEERING TO SWLY AT 2 KM...AND
EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED AROUND 100-150 M2/S2 PER RAP MESOANALYSIS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

..GLEASON.. 07/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   41000339 42990351 43600300 43980201 44629870 44639786
            43849784 42089830 41010263 41000339



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.