Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 291835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291834
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-292030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291834Z - 292030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS TSTM INITIATING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOVE EWD INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED AND WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CU
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND LARAMIES. SOME
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION
AS A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHES THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT BUT PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. THIS INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

MODEST SELY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION SLIGHTLY TEMPERS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REDUCTION DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE LIKELY AROUND 2000 J/KG BY THE
MID-AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AMPLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DENVER CYCLONE
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. A WW MAY
BE NEEDED TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/KERR.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41430584 42610578 42920508 42490441 41650379 40700353
            39180330 38860484 39440570 40820607 41430584



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.