Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251523
FLZ000-251700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251523Z - 251700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.  GIVEN LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 16-1630Z AND
LACK OF ADDITIONAL ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN TPA/MLB WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
ORGANIZATION /WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ OF A STORM IN WEST
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY.  THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG A RELATIVELY
WEAK WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA /FROM JUST NORTH OF TPA TO NEAR 35 N
MLB /AROUND TITUSVILLE FL//.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND
0-3 KM EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THIS STORM IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS COVERAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL ROBUST STORMS WILL BE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

LAT...LON   28588146 28828143 29108083 28718057 28518063 28348094
            28328127 28588146




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