Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280837
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...FAR SE ND...WRN MN...FAR NW IA...FAR NE
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280837Z - 281100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN MN. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE
SEGMENT FROM FAR SE ND SWD ACROSS FAR ERN SD AND INTO NE NEB. THIS
LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD
WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WITH 50-55 KT OF SW
FLOW NEAR 1 KM AGL. THIS MAY HELP THE BETTER-ORGANIZED CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINEAR MCS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF INTENSITY WITH CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MORE MARGINAL
WITH TIME.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   46399476 46679549 46689615 46459658 46069655 44969646
            43869680 43369725 42949786 42559781 42349725 42469645
            42879561 43539498 44329459 45489435 46399476




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