Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260129
FLZ000-GAZ000-260300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

VALID 260129Z - 260300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO
MODESTLY INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS /THROUGH 03-04Z OR 10-11 PM EST/ ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA.

DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW /999 MB/
THAT IS LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FL AS OF 01Z. LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FL PANHANDLE...AND THIS SAME GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTH FL/FAR SOUTHERN GA.

AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-SOUTH
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS AND
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE
AND LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KTLH SHOWS A LONG/CURVING LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH WITH EXTREME /500+ M2 PER S2/ 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 80 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THAT SAID...THE RELATIVE MARGINALITY/NARROWNESS
OF THE INLAND MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING...AND RELATED WEAK BUOYANCY
WITHIN A MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IS LIKELY TO BE
AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE CERTAIN/WIDESPREAD SEVERE
RISK. NONETHELESS...THE SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/PREVALENT SMALL-SCALE BOWS IN ADDITION TO
FAST-MOVING/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 02/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   31018434 31078359 30528269 29688302 29378340 29808492
            30258564 31018434



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