Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 051820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051819
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND...NRN/WRN MN...NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390...

VALID 051819Z - 051945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS
LIKELY WITH TIME FARTHER SOUTH/EAST AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING MCS ACROSS NWRN
MN...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHED LEADING EDGE REFLECTIVITY AND NO RECENT
REPORTS.  DESPITE THESE TRENDS...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BECOME
REESTABLISHED OVER BELTRAMI AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPOSITE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST SD.  STRONG
INSOLATION CONTINUES WITHIN THE MOIST DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT AND
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WITH CONTINUED REDUCTION IN
REMAINING CINH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING
30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH A RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
LINEAR/FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS
WITH TIME AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
QLCS TORNADO. GIVEN THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS
LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

..BUNTING.. 07/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47159823 47809674 48519601 48459426 47949319 46349358
            45449444 44979539 44699618 44589763 44929829 46629834
            47159823




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