Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220755
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-220900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Southern Georgia...central
Florida Panhandle into far northern Florida...and perhaps part of
southern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 220755Z - 220900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be coordinated soon for portions
of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle into far North FL, much of
southern GA, and perhaps into parts of southern SC.  Severe storms
producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will continue to
develop through early Sunday morning across these areas.

DISCUSSION...A progressive shortwave trough moving through AL, at
this time, per water-vapor imagery will move into Ga overnight
approaching SC by daybreak.  Large-scale ascent associated with
height falls and dpva attendant to this trough will support
additional strong to severe storm development as further
destabilization occurs across the discussion area.  Area VWPs
indicated some backing of low-level winds at TAE/JAX allowing
moisture-rich air (surface dew points in the mid-upper 60s) to
spread into southern GA, with a dew point of 70 F already observed
in far southwest GA.  Surface observations also indicated strong
pressure falls (2.5-5 mb per 2-hrs) across east-central
AL/west-central GA border area where analyses suggest mesolow
development along the warm front in this region.  This front
extended east across southern GA.

WSR-88D ABY VWP indicated strengthening deep-layer winds with near
50 kt at 0.5 km and around 70 kt at 2 km. This VWP and objective
analyses reflected this with a strong increase of effective SRH to
current values of 400-500 m2/s2 across the FL Panhandle, southeast
AL into southern GA. This is more than sufficient for tornadic
supercells, with severe storms expected to spread across the
discussion area as the developing mesolow tracks into southern GA
toward southern SC.

..Peters/Thompson.. 01/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   30318543 31718547 32088451 32038346 32298219 32408164
            32178138 31488145 31208141 30778164 30438211 30388343
            30288434 30318543




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