Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 172144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172144
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-172315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the lower Colorado Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 172144Z - 172315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop across the
region through the evening. Isolated damaging-wind gusts will be the
main threat, but storms should remain too disorganized to warrant a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has blossomed across the region
this afternoon, aided by ample heating along higher terrain and
adequate boundary-layer moisture. Furthermore, modified for current
surface conditions, the 12Z VEF RAOB suggests upwards of 2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE and a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer are present
across the region. Therefore, as storms slowly progress across
lower-elevation desert floors, stronger cores will be capable of a
few instances of damaging downburst winds. However, very weak
tropospheric flow will ensure that storms remain disorganized, with
propagation guided by advancing/merging cold pools. As such, watch
issuance is not expected.

..Picca/Edwards.. 07/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   35221547 37041556 37671519 37711440 37331359 35821290
            34441271 33901288 33621419 33881473 34421507 35221547




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.