Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 111020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111020
KSZ000-111415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 111020Z - 111415Z

SUMMARY...A transition from rain to sleet/freezing rain to snow is
anticipated across much of the region over the next several hours.
Periodic heavy snow with snowfall rates around 1"/hr are possible
after transition to all snow occurs.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 20 miles
north of STJ (in far northwest MO) with a strong cold front
extending southwestward from the low across southeast KS to another
low in northwest OK. Strong low-level frontogenesis is contributing
to a broad area of precipitation over much of western and central
KS. Much of the precipitation over central KS is currently rain, but
strong low-level cold advection is expected to quickly cool the
850mb to surface layer. As this occurs, a transition to more mixed
precipitation, likely predominately sleet, is anticipated. This
mixed precipitation phase is not expected to last long (i.e. less
than 2 hours) as continued cold advection results in an eventual
transition to snow. After the transition to snow occurs, periodic
heavy snowfall (i.e. up to 1"/hr) is possible as strengthening
mid-level frontogenesis (attendant to the mid-level trough) augments
lift.

..Mosier.. 01/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37899998 38979915 39789773 39889554 39069553 37439770
            37029940 37169999 37899998




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