Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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871 ACUS11 KWNS 021842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021842 MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022045- Mesoscale Discussion 0604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Northern and central OK...southeast KS...and central MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021842Z - 022045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development will continue through this afternoon across northern OK, far southeastern KS, and central MO. Marginally severe hail up to the size of half dollars (1-1.5 inches) and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with any robust updrafts. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations show a cold front progressing southward into northern OK extending from Lawrence, KS southwestward just through Alva, OK. An MCV over far northeastern OK will continue to slowly advance ENE this afternoon. Linear forcing along the cold front has resulted in enough ascent for a cluster of deep moist convection to develop across SE KS. Further northeast across far eastern KS and central MO, a few more multicell clusters have developed along a weakly forced stationary boundary. As the cold front continues to nudge southward into north central OK, additional linear multicell clusters will likely develop along it, while more widely scattered development persists ahead of the MCV over MO. The environment across the region is not particularly favorable for supercells given inadequate deep layer shear and low buoyancy (widespread cloud cover has persisted through most the day). However, as insulation continues to increase this afternoon and a slow increase in mid to upper flow spreads eastward, some organized updrafts are possible. Convective trends will be monitored for intensification. ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34979734 35539833 36599809 37979605 38279578 39999449 40589226 40449154 39759141 39249078 38669101 37889165 36289453 34979734