Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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742 ACUS11 KWNS 011810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011810 TXZ000-011915- Mesoscale Discussion 0588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011810Z - 011915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is expected across portions of west Texas within the next hour. Large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts near 70 to 80 mph are possible. A WW is likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing deepening moist convection over the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. A dryline extends north to south on the western fringe of this current cumulus, with dew points in the mid to upper 60s east of it. A mid level shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery is just entering Chihuahua Mexico and will enter west TX around 19-20Z. Initial storms may remain somewhat unorganized given low end effective shear. However, as the shortwave trough approaches from the west increasing large scale ascent and stronger flow will overspread the region, supporting more widespread coverage and organized updrafts. In addition, latest surface obs/mesoanalysis indicate MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg will continue to increase through the late afternoon. Very steep mid level lapse rates (> 8 C) within the hail growth zone will support very large hail, especially within discrete supercells. Damaging winds and a tornado or two will also be possible. A convective watch is likely in the next hour. ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29960154 29900198 29920235 29820248 29690271 29410287 29240290 29120316 29280365 29400415 29810423 30330392 30500406 30690430 30890400 31160335 31680297 32250275 32920228 33000174 32970095 32780075 32340055 32050053 31740058 31410066 30990082 30460100 30320107 30240118 30060137 29990137 29960154