Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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449
ACUS11 KWNS 280618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280617
NCZ000-SCZ000-280715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Areas affected...central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 280617Z - 280715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for isolated 50-60 mph gusts with a thunderstorm
cluster within the remnants of a long-lived squall line may continue
east of severe thunderstorm watch 288.  It appears the need for an
additional watch is relatively low given the concentrated/isolated
nature of the overall threat.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a strong to locally severe
thunderstorm cluster over west-central NC with a MCV located near
the VA/NC/TN border.  The larger-scale convective complex will
continue to move east aided by unidirectional westerly flow and 50
kt at 500 mb per KRAX VAD data.  A corridor of modestly steep
700-500 mb lapse rates still resides across central NC and will
likely assist in storm sustenance despite gradual cooling of the
boundary layer.  Surface analysis indicates low to middle 60s
degrees F dewpoints are in the Piedmont whereas farther east towards
the I-95 corridor slightly richer moisture resides (upper 60s).  It
remains unclear how far east a wind-damage risk will occur.
Convective trends will be monitored.

..Smith/Edwards.. 05/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...GSP...

LAT...LON   36028108 35957907 35337858 34827915 35168114 36028108




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