Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
            41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995



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