Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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941
ACUS11 KWNS 290658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290658
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290658Z - 290900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE RISK IN ALL HAZARDS OCCURRING
AFTER 09Z.

DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A ROBUST WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTH LA. LOW-LEVEL WAA IS
SUPPORTING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE N OF THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER TO ARKLATEX REGION. GPS PW DATA HAVE
SAMPLED A RAPID INCREASE IN VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON WITHIN THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING OF THE
EASTERN BRANCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THE NOSE FOCUSED ON THE
ARKLATEX REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z. WHILE ALL CONVECTION WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL /LIKELY NO LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS
GIVEN PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE/...REGENERATIVE ACTIVITY MAY
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES
NORTH. WITHIN AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...A COUPLE EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WHETHER THE STRENGTH OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND RELATED CAPPING INVERSION MAY MITIGATE TRUE
WARM SECTOR STORM SUSTENANCE.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34489793 35149729 35229576 34979386 34719302 34369269
            33869250 33279291 32909364 32669485 32709609 32849721
            33309794 33999814 34489793




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