Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020939
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-021545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN...CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND
EXTREME WRN IA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 020939Z - 021545Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND EXTREME
WRN IA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB. SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY TO 1+
INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

DISCUSSION...SFC LOW OVER SCNTRL KS AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING WILL
DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS THROUGH ERN KS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF A NEWD-ADVANCING 150 KT UPPER JET. THE INCREASING
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND SFC HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WITH A 60+ KT ENELY
850 MB JET LIKELY OVER ERN NEB BY 12Z. MODEST COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. SNOW BANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER NEB WITH RATES INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN EVOLVING
DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. THE
STRONG GRADIENT NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS FROM SWRN THROUGH ERN NEB AS SNOWFALL RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41989478 40159742 39379950 39690128 40840085 42189812
            42809539 41989478



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