Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221945
TXZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221945Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND SPREAD INTO ADJACENT REGIONS OF
SOUTH TX.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...NWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF
WEST TX.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH NUMEROUS/DEEPENING
CU AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
MID-LEVEL JET NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MATURE AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH TX SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPWARD EVOLVING SQUALL LINE MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NOTED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADS TOWARD THE
LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 21Z.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

LAT...LON   30319998 28829855 26039752 26039915 29570148 30319998




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