Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS11 KWNS 240003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240002
MOZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240002Z - 240130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY LIMITED/SHORT-DURATION SEVERE RISK COULD
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER
MARGINAL...AND A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED/INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MO...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-44 AND AROUND 25 MILES WEST/SOUTHWEST
OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AS OF 550PM CST. A COUPLE OF MESOVORTICES
HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES/LOW-LEVEL CAPE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 75 J/KG HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO STRONGER...ALBEIT LOW-TOPPED...UPDRAFTS. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO
AND/OR WIND GUST/SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A
COOLING/DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY SLOWLY COOLING AHEAD OF THE LINE...SHOULD LEAD TO A
DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...

LAT...LON   37099396 37749336 37639264 36859258 36629276 36529364
            37099396




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