Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 192313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192312
OKZ000-200145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/western/northern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192312Z - 200145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop northward/eastward
through the evening hours, and an isolated/marginal severe risk
could evolve. Watch issuance will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms from parts of central/western TX into
southwest OK will continue to develop northward/eastward during the
next several hours. This will occur as midlevel height falls
continue overspreading the region amidst modest 850-700-mb warm
advection. Convection over southwest OK already is assuming somewhat
disorganized/cluster-type convective modes. This is consistent with
multiple subtle inflections in the hodograph representing deep
meridional flow indicated by the FDR VAD wind profile. With around
50-55 kt of deep shear, and modest strengthening of low-level shear
profiles through the evening, a few briefly severe storms could
occur. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with
this activity. Convective interference owing to increasingly
numerous thunderstorm development, coupled with a relatively more
dry/stable boundary layer compared to points south, should greatly
minimize the severe risk.

..Cohen/Thompson.. 02/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   36609745 35239730 34889750 34899812 35319867 35979890
            36729877 36849814 36609745



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.