Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231717
OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OK...TX SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231717Z - 231945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z REVEALS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT TSTMS NORTH OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
CUMULUS AS HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A SHARPENING
CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH NUMEROUS
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER TIME...CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LCLS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 TO 300
M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM
AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33759891 33199958 33170093 33370199 33690266 33970266
            34530271 35070258 35050193 34880153 34730090 34879996
            35379890 35429845 34929828 34149872 33759891




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