Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 262050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262050
MOZ000-262245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PORTION OF SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262050Z - 262245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
SRN MO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF SRN MO. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...AND
MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CLUSTER IS
ON THE SRN FRINGES OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-25 KT PER
LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. VWPS FROM AREA RADARS DO SHOW A VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER...BUT MAGNITUDES ARE 30
KT OR LESS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
WITH THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD...THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND THE LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..CARBIN/GLEASON.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37519169 38239097 37779037 36899097 36849169 37199212
            37519169




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