Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 020231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020230
OKZ000-TXZ000-020500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020230Z - 020500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREATS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW NEAR WICHITA
FALLS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW. SFC WINDS ARE
ELY AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LINE OF ELEVATED STORMS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
FREDERICK OK. AT MID-LEVELS...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80 TO 100 KT
JET WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN AND CNTRL OK BY LATE THIS EVENING ENHANCING
LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR RESULTING IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF STORM
COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z FROM LAWTON TO OKC SHOW 90 TO
100 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSFER THIS WIND TO THE
SFC MAKING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALSO...MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM
SUGGESTING HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35349906 34129912 34119785 34549651 35959658 36089749
            35349906



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.