Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 041714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041714
NCZ000-VAZ000-041915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041714Z - 041915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN NC AND
FAR SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLY/SWLY FLOW OF THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA WHILE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING IN WRN WV. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NC HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES NEWD AND DAYTIME
HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS.

RECENT VAD DATA FROM RAX AND 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM MHX SHOW
MODERATE...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW FROM ABOUT 1 TO 5 KM. WHILE THIS
FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT SHOULD HELP PROMOTE AT LEAST
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS
STORM COVERAGE. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH
MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   36067788 36297764 36677728 36847693 36867646 36827621
            36557615 36037627 35157680 34557752 34387781 34287831
            34667905 35617828 36067788



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.