Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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173
ACUS11 KWNS 290052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290052
TXZ000-290215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290052Z - 290215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE TEMPLE/WACO AREAS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED NORTH OF THE
AUSTIN TX AREA.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...OR IS AT LEAST UNCLEAR...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...JUST TO THE NORTH OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.  IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE PERHAPS IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEMPLE THROUGH WACO VICINITIES DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED...AS INHIBITION BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME
FRAME.

..KERR/HART.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30539759 30819877 31539870 31749793 31499641 31059546
            30319638 30539759




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