Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272215
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-272345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MN...WRN/CNTRL WI...AND NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272215Z - 272345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...22Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW 40 W EAU IN WRN WI...WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SERN MN INTO NRN IA.
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF
WRN/CNTRL WI. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WAS
ANALYZED FROM SERN WI NWWD TO 40 E EAU. A COMPACT MCV WAS NOTED ON
RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS E-CNTRL MN...WHICH IS
ENCOURAGING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG THE COLD/WARM
FRONTS...AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL WI.

AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD
AREA. A MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO MID-LEVEL WINDS /AROUND 25-30 KT/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A FEW MULTICELLS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN WI. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS. THE LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK...AND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE ONGOING MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH.

..GLEASON/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43099105 42759290 42869451 43229452 44839265 45329123
            45248999 45018908 44638929 43958994 43099105




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