Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232054
TXZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232054Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE/GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHWEST TX IN AREAS NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRY LINE...WHILE SEVERAL TSTMS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED/MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER/DEL RIO VICINITY AS OF 2045Z. AIDED BY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATION WITH A FOUR CORNERS AREA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DEPTH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INITIALLY MODEST /30 KT/ IN
MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...EITHER VIA ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY
LINE AND/OR STORMS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY POTENTIALLY AS A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29980211 31300183 32010130 32300012 31939937 31489942
            29240001 28360025 29490147 29980211




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