Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241508
MIZ000-241645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241508Z - 241645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN LOWER
MI THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER CROSSING THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL WI IS
CROSSING MID LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL REACH/SPREAD ESE OF THE WRN
LOWER MI SHORELINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING MASON/OCEANA COUNTIES AROUND 1545Z-1615Z. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR-MASS
RECOVERY OVER WRN LOWER MI HAS BEEN MINIMAL FOLLOWING PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE INFLUX OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM THE W SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR SOME SUSTAINED
TSTM RISK. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE GRR VWP SAMPLING 30-35 KT OF
WLY/WNWLY 3-8-KM FLOW...SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR EXISTS FOR THE
SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO SPREAD ONSHORE AND INLAND THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MARGINAL DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY...THE KGRR RADAR DATA IMPLY THAT A PROMINENT REAR-INFLOW
CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING
THAT AT LEAST A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43498652 43878652 44228633 44208583 43978553 43528571
            43428628 43498652



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