Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 030959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030958
TNZ000-NCZ000-031130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 030958Z - 031130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST
WILL PERSIST OVER NERN TN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED LOW-TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR
KNOXVILLE AND SWD INTO SERN TN IS MOVING EAST AT NEAR 50 KT. STRONG
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE 60-70 KT SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
THE LINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED AND SHALLOW...AND
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE/SPORADIC.
NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME OF THE
HIGH MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC WITHIN BANDS OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36028407 36498359 36588259 36058256 35708328 35178402
            35178455 36028407



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