Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221945
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NERN NEB...NWRN KS...AND SWRN THRU CNTRL
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221945Z - 222145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...A STALLING
OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...BENEATH MODERATE SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO 40-50+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
INSOLATION CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...AND AT LEAST
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS 22-00Z.

THE INITIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY EAST OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE.  THE INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE UNDERWAY DOWNSTREAM...NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
POCKET OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

..KERR/MEAD.. 08/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39790387 40710226 40800211 41610029 42129948 42179817
            40939755 40289935 40199990 39340182 38250355 38920397
            39790387



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