Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150022
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150022Z - 150145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WITH OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TEMPERED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REGENERATE/PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
OK EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COLLOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. THIS INCLUDES
A BRIEF TORNADO RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM IN THE PRESENCE OF 200-250
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH PER 00Z NORMAN OBSERVED SOUNDING/KTLX WSR-88D VWP
DATA. HOWEVER...A GRADUALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN AN ALREADY
MODEST BUOYANCY REGIME SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPER UPDRAFT VIGOR/TORNADO
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
OTHERWISE REMAINING POSSIBLE. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...A BRIEF
TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS.

OTHERWISE...BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING SOME BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHEAST OK THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS POSING
A MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WIND RISK WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 12/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38109889 37759762 37039632 35799524 34099516 33209560
            33469701 34449782 36699789 38109889



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