Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021858
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF SC...FAR SRN NC/ERN GA

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 021858Z - 022030Z

SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO CAT 2/SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE 20Z D1 OUTLOOK. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NEAR 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS APPEAR TO BE CLUSTERING ACROSS UPSTATE
SC INTO PARTS OF NERN GA WITHIN A BELT OF 30-40 KT 700-500 MB WLYS
PER AREA VWP DATA. WITH RELATIVELY STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
E-CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL SC AND 90/70-TYPE SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW
POINTS IN THE BROAD DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG...INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS INTO MORE
THAN JUST A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE. BUT THIS WILL
PROBABLY REQUIRE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL TO FIRST DEVELOP GIVEN FLOW
WEAKENING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS.

..GRAMS/GUYER/HART.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   34528167 34738083 34798003 34737949 34567908 34227886
            34027886 33817895 33267938 32828037 32918135 33098184
            33368249 33828253 34528167



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