Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 101807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101806
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-101930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ...SE CA...SE NV...SW UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101806Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT
SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW AZ EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN
NV. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S F WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 7.5
TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE ACCORDING TO RAP-V2 DATA. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD HELP DOWNDRAFTS ACCELERATE AS PULSE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORMS.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 07/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   37191601 36071564 35211545 34551525 34451441 35261271
            36231244 37501338 38631389 38671505 37191601




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