Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270046
MOZ000-270215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW INTO N CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 458...

VALID 270046Z - 270215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 458 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...INCLUDING PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL
TORNADO OR TWO...THROUGH 02-03Z...PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF KANSAS
CITY INTO THE CHILLICOTHE MO AREA.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED IMPULSE PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE ONGOING
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS MAY ALSO BE NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...WITH THE QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION NOW EAST OF ST. JOSEPH.  THE SOUTHERN FLANK IS STILL
LAGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST...ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST KANSAS CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA...BUT THE MOST PROMINENT EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE PASSING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS CITY METRO.  THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED SHEAR...AND MAY BECOME THE APEX OF A BETTER
DEFINED BOWING REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

GIVEN A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATELY LARGE CAPE /UP TO 2000 J PER KG/ AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST A SMALL
SWATH OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF
CALDWELL...LIVINGSTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 02-03Z.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 08/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...

LAT...LON   39759391 39829369 39769329 39429353 39259420 39539390
            39759391



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