Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281430
TXZ000-OKZ000-281700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281430Z - 281700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for hail will continue this morning as storms
develop across the Texas Panhandle southward into west Texas. The
storms across this area will remain elevated and WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows several elevated
thunderstorms oriented from south to north across the western Texas
Panhandle. These storms are located along the western edge of the
stronger low-level flow and along the eastern edge of a band of
large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low in the Four
Corners region. As moisture advection continues across the Texas
Panhandle and large-scale ascent increases from the west,
thunderstorm coverage should gradually expand over the next few
hours. The convection is developing in a moderately unstable
environment with forecast soundings showing MUCAPE in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range. Most of the instability is located above 700 mb
where winds are generally from south to south southwest. Some speed
shear is evident from 700 to 500 mb which along with steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a marginal hail threat. The hail threat
should continue in the western Texas Panhandle but should gradually
expand eastward over the next 2 to 3 hours as new cells initiate and
move northward across the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. Other
elevated thunderstorms may also develop southward across west Texas.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36410245 36700203 36760136 36530050 35860028 35000042
            33760088 33540161 33690232 34280271 35560266 36410245




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