Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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451
ACUS11 KWNS 221542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221541
GAZ000-221715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221541Z - 221715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection spreading northward through parts of central GA
may pose large-hail potential through the morning hours. Watch
issuance is unlikely in the short term, but the severe risk will
increase later today when Watches will be required.

DISCUSSION...Positive theta-e advection in the low levels, beneath
increasing deep ascent, will continue to foster northward-spreading
convection through the late morning hours. Effective inflow layers
will likely remain slightly elevated in the short-term. Regardless,
the near-8 C/km 700-500-mb lapse rate and 70 kt of effective shear
indicated by the Atlanta 12Z sounding suggest that semi-organized
convection with robust updraft cores may produce isolated severe
hail. Later today, additional destabilization and strengthening deep
ascent will support increasing severe potential.

..Cohen/Hart.. 01/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...

LAT...LON   32088453 32618488 33458459 33658368 33478276 33098260
            32168286 32088453




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