Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231827
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-231930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231827Z - 231930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING COMPLEX OF TSTMS WILL POSE A DMGG WIND AND LARGE
HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SERN MO AND NWRN
AR. A SMALL WW IS BEING ISSUED FOR NERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL.

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH...WITH
PROPAGATION/GENERATION OF NEW CONVECTION FAVORING THE WRN FLANK.
GENERAL MOTION IS TOWARDS THE SSW AT 15-20 KT...WITH STORMS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING/SPREADING INTO NERN AR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
OBSERVATIONS AND INTENSITY TRENDS ON RADAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS...WITH A 46 KT GUST RECENTLY OBSERVED
AT CAPE GIRARDEAU. INSTABILITY AXIS IS ORIENTED FROM N-CNTRL AR INTO
SERN MO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SVR WIND THREAT AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR-SVR HAIL. EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION/MERGING
WITH NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING TO THE W MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT CONTINUING TO SHIFT SWWD.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36828945 35958958 35029017 34899048 35109084 35489106
            35999130 36519129 37009113 37179075 37259028 36828945



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