Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230217
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-230345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN SD...NERN WY...SERN MT...WRN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430...

VALID 230217Z - 230345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE REMAINING PORTIONS WW.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED
WITHIN THIS HOUR FOR PORTIONS WRN NEB.

DISCUSSION...THREE PRINCIPAL AREAS OF SVR CONVECTION REMAIN...WITH
ONE POSING GREATER RELATIVE THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

1. CONVECTION OVER SWRN SD...ANCHORED BY SUPERCELL THAT HAS PRODUCED
HAIL ESTIMATED UP TO 2.75 INCH DIAMETER IN NERN WY SINCE 00Z.
THOUGH LARGE/DAMAGING  HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAIN THREAT MAY
BECOME DAMAGING WIND AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD INTO REGIME OF WEAK
BUT SLOWLY INCREASING MLCINH OVER NWRN SANDHILLS REGION.  BUILDING
COLD POOL AND/OR INTERNAL SUPERCELL DYNAMICS MAY YIELD FORCED ASCENT
OF FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR FOR SOME DISTANCE INTO NEB.
MEANWHILE SFC-850-MB LAYER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OBSERVED VEERING
TRENDS AND ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VECTORS.
2. ISOLATED SUPERCELL MOVING SEWD TOWARD NRN MEADE COUNTY MAY REACH
ERN PENNINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WEAKENING.
3. CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING SVR GUSTS NEAR BIL
MAY MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS WW BEFORE WEAKENING...BUT EVENTUALLY WILL
ENCOUNTER DIABATICALLY STABILIZING AIR MASS.

..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   42930388 43410489 43720519 44040456 44400526 44670596
            45070635 45650638 45720502 45630391 45420336 45390263
            45110169 43890135 41820098 41770282 42930388



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