Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021856
MIZ000-022000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND CNTRL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021856Z - 022000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE EXITING INTO LAKE HURON.
UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW OVER CNTRL
LOWER MI IS UNCLEAR.  IF THE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BECOMES
LIKELY/IMMINENT...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE TRAILING WSWWD FROM A QLCS OVER
LAKE HURON INTO CNTRL AND W-CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI.  SURFACE
TEMPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND ARE APPROACHING 90 DEG F.  THE
18Z GRB AND DVN RAOBS SHOWED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C
PER KM/ AND THIS PLUME OF GREATER INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT EWD INTO
LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST H7 45-KT FLOW.  AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING HAS YIELDED A SUBSTANTIALLY MIXED PBL /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MIXING TO NEAR 60 DEG F/ AND MODERATE BUOYANCY PER THE 18Z DTX RAOB.
IF ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP ON THE TRAILING OUTFLOW
OVER W-CNTRL AND CNTRL LOWER MI...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP.  WILL MONITOR
SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CINH
CONTINUES TO ERODE.

..SMITH/HART.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42948496 43298423 43948307 43558251 42958245 42678290
            42488391 42518472 42948496




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