Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261943
TXZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261943Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND SOME CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY
IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH TIME...THE HIGHER BASED
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE DRYLINE INTO A
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS AND 1500-3000
J/KG MLCAPE.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
THIS REGION AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.  GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY...40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH EVENING...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33329897 33389927 33460016 32990063 32120112 31160191
            30530232 29980224 29710147 30019982 31879900 32659877
            33159882 33329897




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