Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 050707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050706
NDZ000-MTZ000-050800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL MT / WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389...

VALID 050706Z - 050800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL MT.  THE SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO WRN ND AND MAY PROMPT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A PARADE OF 3 DISCRETE SEVERE STORMS
MOVING E ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO NERN MT.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR
DATA INDICATE A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE
FLANK OF THE LEAD STORM NEAR GGW WSWWD INTO CNTRL MT WITH THE
UPSTREAM STORMS ELEVATED IN CHARACTER.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING
STORM ACTIVITY...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS AND A MARGINALLY
BUOYANT AIRMASS AMIDST ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
MOIST/UNSTABLE FEED INTO E-CNTRL MT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE
APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN ISOLD/ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ND
PRIOR TO 10 UTC.  WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS IT APPROACHES
THE ND/MT BORDER WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

..SMITH.. 07/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46450337 47080701 47440901 47910924 48210685 47730309
            46450337




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