Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021048
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-021215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF AR/LA/MS/TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137...

VALID 021048Z - 021215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY YET OCCUR ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW 137. ELSEWHERE...THE
LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF THE RISK SUGGESTS PORTIONS OF WW 137 COULD
BE CANCELLED EARLY.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED BUT REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. IT APPEARS OVERALL
INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED OWING TO OVERTURNING AND RESULTANT
WEAKENING OF LAPSE RATES. THE RELATIVELY MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR A
POSSIBLE STORM-SCALE INCREASE IN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL
WOULD BE 1) ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AS CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AR/NORTH-CENTRAL LA BORDER APPROACHES THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THIS REGION AND 2) ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHEAST TX NEAR A PROBABLE UPSTREAM FEED
OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..GRAMS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29859385 30049482 30329561 30789599 31349555 31579525
            31659433 32309296 33139236 33829136 33789061 33479038
            33139033 32879042 32519055 32339063 31069169 30349227
            30039274 29859385



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