Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 212210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212209
TXZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 212209Z - 212345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING...AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST ONGOING CELLS ARE
PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
WEAK...CLUSTERING OF STORMS WEST OF TEMPLE AND AUSTIN INTO THE
JUNCTION AREA MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH THAT CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS
COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AND SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30880045 30819957 30999886 31129844 31339810 31839756
            32249745 32579682 32219619 31349693 30529734 29779790
            29519883 30040025 30600064 30880045




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.