Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 172040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172039
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO...SE KS...NW AR...NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172039Z - 172145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NW AR INTO SW MO...WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING AREAS TO THE W WHERE THE MORE UNSTABLE INFLOW
AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS NE OK.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SOMEWHAT MESSY SUPERCELLS ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT.  THE ONGOING STORMS
SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHILE
MOVING SWD INTO NW AR...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM A BIT
FARTHER W INTO EXTREME SE KS AND NE OK IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.
THE MOST ORGANIZED/INTENSE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NOW...WITH MORE
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN/WEAKER SHEAR CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH TIME INTO OK.
THUS...THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CLEAR FROM
HERE FORWARD.

..THOMPSON.. 09/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   35919288 35599269 34839267 34569283 34489323 34639450
            34819509 35389530 36599518 37189506 37309465 37279432
            36999406 36469381 35919288



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