Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 141627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141627
OHZ000-INZ000-142030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central IN eastward to central OH

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 141627Z - 142030Z

SUMMARY...Areas of freezing rain are forecast to spread eastward
across the area through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The northern extent of a shield of precipitation
crossing the OH Valley region -- within an area of low/mid-level
confluence -- will continue spreading across sub-freezing wet-bulb
temperatures within the surface layer, through the day. Initial
saturation of low-level thermal profiles is ongoing from central IN
to central OH in association with leading weak precipitation, while
an additional area of precipitation now entering west-central IN
will spread eastward during the next several hours. The 12Z
Wilmington OH sounding sampled a maximum temperature in the elevated
warm layer around 5.5C, which will result in complete melting of
descending hydrometeors -- which should re-freeze on contact with
the surface. As a result, freezing rain will be possible through the
day, with rates around 0.02 inch per hour possible. The lack of
stronger ascent will likely limit the risk for more substantial
rates.

..Cohen.. 01/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39668605 39908666 40178664 40388592 40408341 40348204
            40058127 39658182 39598463 39668605




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