Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 162148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162147
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Kansas...western
Missouri...and northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...

Valid 162147Z - 162315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, at times severe, will continue to develop
across WW 453 this evening. Through late evening, storms will likely
merge into eastward-moving lines/clusters, with the severe threat
transitioning primarily to damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaic data depict several clusters of
strong/severe storms have developed along both a cold front and
remnant outflow boundary over southern Kansas. Cells have exhibited
a somewhat disorganized evolution so far, characterized by splits
and mergers. This evolution is likely the result of continued
front-parallel deep-layer flow and only modest west/southwesterly
winds around 700mb. Despite this, steep mid-level lapse rates and
500mb flow around 50 kt (based on recent KVNX VWP data) suggest
large hail remains a threat with any semi-discrete cells. However,
the overall severe threat should further transition to damaging
winds this evening, as storms congeal into small forward-propagating
segments and push towards western Missouri.

..Picca.. 08/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37199865 38379595 38759460 38709357 38429327 37189344
            36769390 36559601 36699813 36859860 37199865




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