Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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358
ACUS11 KWNS 230959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230958
OKZ000-TXZ000-231100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OK AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198...

VALID 230958Z - 231100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ONGOING MATURE MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND VICINITY IS
FORECAST TO BE DECAYING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH THE SVR
RISK LESSENING. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING PORTION OF AN MCS ACROSS SRN
OK/N TX IS SPREADING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES OK
AND GRAYSON COUNTY TX. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT RECENT
PEAK WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APEX OF THE LEADING
CONVECTIVE LINE ARE ONLY AROUND 40-50 MPH. AS INFLOW CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE OWING TO NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND AS THE MCS INTERCEPTS THE
WRN FRINGES OF A CONTINENTAL AIR MASS...THE MCS WILL BE WEAKENING
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT PRE-DAWN HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE SVR-WIND
RISK WILL LESSEN AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OK AND
ADJACENT N TX...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION EVOLVING WITHIN THE UPSHEAR-PROPAGATION REGIME WWD TOWARD
WICHITA FALLS AND VICINITY WILL POSE LITTLE SVR RISK AS SWD-SAGGING
OUTFLOW UNDERCUTS INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE CELLS.

..COHEN.. 05/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33779944 34209843 34239778 34099701 34479624 34589531
            33969487 33649518 33309634 33349851 33509931 33779944




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