Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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217
ACUS11 KWNS 030020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030019
INZ000-ILZ000-030215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 030019Z - 030215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE A VERY ISOLATED
WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE BRIEF.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN A NNE/SSW ORIENTED
BAND FROM NEAR COOK COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR BOND/MADISON COUNTIES
IN ILLINOIS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY /ON THE ORDER OF 250-600 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND LIFT FROM A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER IOWA.  NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND RESULT IN GRADUALLY MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-SHEAR PROFILES IN THE
REGION SUGGEST THAT A VERY ISOLATED WIND GUST OR TORNADO THREAT MAY
OCCUR.  GIVEN THE LOW OVERALL THREAT...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38488997 39048982 39898918 40598835 40898759 40928691
            40688656 39908652 38848720 38318773 38188830 38128880
            38098943 38258988 38488997




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