Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290116
OKZ000-KSZ000-290245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND ERN KS/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420...

VALID 290116Z - 290245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE SERN HALF OF KS
/I.E. THE REMAINING SERN PORTIONS OF WW 420/...WITH RISK S OF THE WW
INTO NRN OK MORE UNCERTAIN.  NEW WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY...THOUGH
ATTM THINKING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT S OF THE
EXISTING WW.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED/ARCING
BAND OF STORMS CROSSING INTO SRN/ERN KS ATTM...AND IS NEARING THE
ERN AND SRN FRINGES OF WW 420.  SOME WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION
MOVING TOWARD TOPEKA HAS BEEN OBSERVED...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE -- WITH AN INCREASINGLY ISOLATED SEVERE RISK APPARENT ATTM
WITH EWD EXTENT.

MEANWHILE...THE FASTER-MOVING/MORE INTENSE SRN PORTION OF THE LINE
OF STORMS /NEAR THE ICT VICINITY/ CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD AS IT
INTERACTS WITH REMNANT/NWWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER OK
CONVECTION.  AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD HOWEVER...A MORE
CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS OVER NRN OK ON THE COOL SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT DETRIMENTAL
EFFECT ON CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...CASTING UNCERTAINTY UPON THE NEED
FOR A NEW WATCH S OF WW 420.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...THOUGH ATTM WE ARE LEANING SLIGHTLY AGAINST
NEW WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38359726 39549632 39289534 36709510 36429719 36819850
            37729872 38359726



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