Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 301238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301238
LAZ000-TXZ000-301345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...130...

VALID 301238Z - 301345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
129...130...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY RISKS SHOULD REMAIN AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO INTO LATE MORNING AS A PAIR OF MCS/S LIKELY
MERGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...FORWARD MOTION OF A LEAD MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE
SABINE RIVER INTO SOUTHWEST LA WAS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HOUSTON METRO WAS MOVING EAST
AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MERGING OF THESE MCS/S IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE. 12Z LCH SAMPLED ONLY
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED MLCIN...AROUND 100 J/KG...RELATIVE TO 00Z. AS
SUCH...THIS LEAD CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEST FORWARD
SPEED UNTIL UPSTREAM COLD POOL AMALGAMATION OCCURS. BEYOND THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN WPC MPD 154...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.

..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30399519 30519449 30539384 30759349 30859262 30709225
            30189207 29729230 29599256 29629374 29359475 29209536
            29269615 29589604 30399519




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