Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 160358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160358
NEZ000-160530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Areas affected...Much of central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

Valid 160358Z - 160530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452
continues.

SUMMARY...It is possible that severe thunderstorm watch 452 could be
locally extended in time for an hour or so across parts of central
Nebraska.  However, severe weather potential, in general, appears to
be diminishing, and an additional watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection has become widespread across much of
Nebraska, along a cold front/convective outflow advancing eastward
out of the high Plains, and within a zone of enhanced low-level warm
advection along/above convective outflow generated by preceding
thunderstorm clusters across central/eastern Nebraska.  In the
presence of increasing inhibition for near surface air, due to the
onset of diurnal boundary layer cooling, peak thunderstorm
intensities have generally diminished.  However, at least some
renewed attempts at intensification may be occurring along the
leading edge of the eastward advancing cool air to the west of North
Platte.  This is coinciding with modest southerly low-level jet
strengthening across the central Plains (up to 35+ kt at 850 my
across south central Nebraska).  Further consolidation and
strengthening of convection may not yet be entirely out of the
question across and just east of North Platte through 04-06z,
perhaps accompanied some risk for strong surface gusts.  However,
beyond 06Z, as this convection progresses into an environment
impacted by persistent convection this evening, intensities seem
likely to weaken and any lingering severe weather potential probably
will diminish as well.

..Kerr.. 08/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41470056 41449929 40759955 40660029 40880071 41470056




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