Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261835
OKZ000-TXZ000-262000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK INTO W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261835Z - 262000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN
OK SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOOSELY CONVERGENT DRYLINE
FROM JUST E OF LBB SWD TO JUST W OF 6R6...WITH GENERALLY VEERING SFC
WINDS TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE OCCURRING. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING NWD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING I-20 ACROSS W-CNTRL TX...AND LOW 60S INTO SWRN
OK. WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...VERY LARGE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED /2500-4000 J/KG/...BUT WEAK CAPPING IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUAL ENHANCEMENT OF CU GENERALLY
E OF THE DRYLINE ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NEAR LTS TO ABI.
A LONE STORM /LIKELY ELEVATED/ WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS
SWRN OK. MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...BUT A TORNADO RISK COULD ACCOMPANY
LONGER-LIVED CELLULAR STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   35579882 35019744 34079723 33749821 32139888 31279998
            31070075 31540129 32580147 33100080 33720000 34509964
            35159967 35509945 35579882




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