Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200218
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-200345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Areas affected...Southeast KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200218Z - 200345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible for the
next hour or so across southeast KY. Anticipated marginal and
short-lived severe threat is expected to preclude the need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developed quickly across southeast KY as
the outflow boundary encountered the warm and moist airmass across
the region. The flow aloft is pretty meager (i.e. about 30 kt at
5kft based on the 00Z BNA sounding and recent JKL VAD data) and the
boundary-layer continues to undergo nocturnal destabilization. These
factors suggest only modest storm organization and that any strong
updrafts should be fairly short-lived. Even so, the 00Z BNA sounding
sampled almost -12 deg C at 500 mb and 700-500 mb lapse rates over 7
deg C per km, which suggests that strong updrafts are possible.
Recent radar trends bear these suggestions out with strong but
relatively unorganized and outflow-dominant storms noted from
Pulaski to Johnson counties in southeast KY. Some isolated hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible with this line of storms for the
next hour or so but the negative factors listed above should
preclude a more long-lived severe threat.

..Mosier/Hart.. 05/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON   37498471 36968512 36658422 37118260 37528213 38048265
            37498471




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