Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210020
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-210145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210020Z - 210145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORT THIS EVENING. WW
NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION PROGRESSING SE ACROSS SERN AL AND THE FAR WRN FL
PANHANDLE AS OF 00Z. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE BUOYANCY AND FAIRLY
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TLH
RAOB/...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND /AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT/ WILL LIKELY
AID NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING PROMOTES
SIGNIFICANT BL STABILIZATION. HOWEVER...QUITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW
/WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT/ WILL BE
DETRIMENTAL TO THE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
AS SUCH...ANY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED SPATIALLY AS WELL AS TEMPORALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION/LACK OF FOCUSED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THUS...WW
ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32408541 32218508 31638500 30618485 30198489 30178501
            30158548 30448640 30538686 30788692 31158704 31598661
            31958598 32408541



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