Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 261710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261709
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-261845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261709Z - 261845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BUT THE LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN SD CONTINUES
TO MOVE SEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF THIS
OUTFLOW ACROSS S-CNTRL SD ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AMIDST
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. MODIFIED 12Z ABR SOUNDING AND RECENT RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM ROUGHLY
ICR /IN S-CNTRL SD/ NEWD TO AROUND ATY /IN NE SD/. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
WEAKER INHIBITION.

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
-- MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS -- AND ABR
VAD RECENTLY SAMPLED 35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. A COOLER AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM /ACROSS FAR SE SD AND NE
NEB/ AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND REDUCED
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT-LIVED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 07/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43230121 45339891 46059763 45489674 44639701 43409847
            42750015 43230121




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.