Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 312245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312244
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-010015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312244Z - 010015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT WW ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...AT 2230Z...SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SERN
MANITOBA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD NEAR A
BDE-BRD-RWF-FSD LINE ACROSS CNTRL INTO SWRN MN. THE PREFRONTAL
AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO A
PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 75-85F RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
CASS/TODD/STEARNS COUNTIES IN MN...BUT THUS FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK AND IS LIKELY BEING INHIBITED SOMEWHAT BY ONLY
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...AS STRONGER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERSPREADS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING...MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...EVOLVING OUT OF ONGOING FRONTAL
ACTIVITY AND/OR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NWRN IA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN EVOLVE.

WITH THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LLJ LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...IT IS UNCLEAR IF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MN...BUT WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IS OBSERVED.

..DEAN/EDWARDS.. 08/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43539647 44839534 45769491 47059432 48189405 47959235
            46319274 45339293 44659310 44129356 43549454 43539647



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