Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022208
MIZ000-022345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

VALID 022208Z - 022345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD
POOL ...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A MORE
GRADUAL GENERAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ALSO OCCURRING.  A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

DISCUSSION...THE SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITH A BOW ECHO
SIGNATURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 50 KT...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW...AND WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN THUMB BY AROUND
23Z.  SEVERAL 3- SECOND PEAK GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ASOS SITES
WITH THIS FEATURE.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH UPSCALE
GROWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST...AND MAY ACCELERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT SIMILAR VELOCITIES...INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST...THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR SMALL-SCALE BOW.  GIVEN THE VERY WARM TO
HOT...FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED...AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT
ACROSS THIS REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
CONTINUING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD POOL...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE ALONG THE GUST
FRONT.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SAGINAW/ LANSING/FLINT AREAS
BY THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43948680 43908521 44068409 43878349 43598299 43348269
            42878299 42578401 42688630 42918674 43338718 43668704
            43948680



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