Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 030420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030419
PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-030545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL...NRN IND...NRN OH AND SRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...465...

VALID 030419Z - 030545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
463...465...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH A LINGERING LINE OF STORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
THROUGH 05-07Z.  A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR
NORTHERN OHIO...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT UP TO 30 KT.  LIFT ALONG THIS FEATURE HAS
REMAINED SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RENEWED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT... BUT LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST GENERAL
INTENSITY TRENDS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD SWING.  STRONGER MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO
BEGIN TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHORTLY.  AS
THIS OCCURS...40-50 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  COUPLED WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
WITHIN A NARROWING PRE-CONVECTIVE LINE INSTABILITY AXIS...SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME.

..KERR.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41388692 41298457 41558375 41778168 42158083 42078037
            41338090 40888276 40398594 40598822 41548904 41388692



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.