Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021735
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-022230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IA...SRN MN...AND MUCH OF WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 021735Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IA INTO SRN
MN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB AS OF
1730Z MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A RELATED BAND OF STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD WITH
TIME. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN THE W-E ORIENTED DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE FROM SW-NE WITH TIME AS
THE NOSE OF A MID/UPPER JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD BY
23Z. MID-LEVEL COOLING AND RELATED STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ENCOURAGE SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN HEAVY SNOW BANDS...AND RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR
MAY BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE. 17Z SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
IA/SRN MN WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING INDICATE ELY/NELY WINDS OF
15-25 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL KS MOVES NEWD WITH THE UPPER LOW. A CONTINUED
ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS NEAR-BLIZZARD TO OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NRN IA AND SRN MN FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

..GLEASON.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42989377 42259632 43419642 44169576 45289371 46019008
            45768845 44958785 43558949 42649189 42989377



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