Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 282330
SPC MCD 282330
Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southwest TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94...
Valid 282330Z - 290100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94
SUMMARY...The risk for severe storms continues across Watch 94.
DISCUSSION...The leading edge of strong ascent (marked by a shield
of midlevel clouds from high-based convection over the Trans-Pecos
region) will continue overtaking the western extent of Gulf moisture
within the next few hours. A line of strong to severe storms will
likely develop from parts of the Permian Basin vicinity to the Rio
Grande River vicinity, along a Pacific front overtaking a dryline
analyzed from Howard County to Brewster Country. East of the
dryline, moderate to strong instability amid 40-60 kt of effective
shear will support robust updrafts capable of severe winds and large
hail. Sufficient line-orthogonal low-level shear -- intensifying
into the evening hours -- may support line-embedded meso-vortices
yielding pockets of enhanced wind damage. A few supercell storms may
evolve ahead of the developing line across eastern parts of the
Permian Basin, capable of severe hail and wind.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29840236 30310243 31840169 32720136 32810086 32200072
31780048 31100050 30520099 29810173 29840236