Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281537
ARZ000-OKZ000-281630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR...FAR ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281537Z - 281630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A
MCS MOVING INTO WRN AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS INTENSIFIED ACROSS SERN/E-CNTRL
OK...WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING PARTS
OF THE LINE. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE DOWNSHEAR FROM
THE MCS...BUT VWP DATA FROM LIT SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS
WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL AR. THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXTEND TOO FAR EAST INTO AR...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35609365 34549347 33769384 33679447 33899502 34449502
            35249505 35729484 35899392 35609365




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