Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251917
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251917Z - 252115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/WESTERN WISCONSIN...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
HAS PROGRESSED NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 22-23Z.
30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT MODEST IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...EAST THROUGH NORTH OF MADISON INTO
AREAS BETWEEN LA CROSSE AND EAU CLAIRE...COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE THE
FOCUS AND SUPPORT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS STORMS CROSS IT.
OTHERWISE...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS SEEM THE MORE GENERAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AT
LEAST A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

..KERR/HART.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   42889112 45109153 45538959 44538921 43528825 42588894
            42269009 42469091 42889112




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