Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 202123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202122
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...NWRN OH...SERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202122Z - 202315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM SWRN LOWER
MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/ESEWD. THE ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO FORWARD PROPAGATE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING WW 504
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY -- STRONGEST FROM CNTRL INDIANA
WWD/SWWD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PRESENCE OF 35-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS -- WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER PER VWPS -- SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE
THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY MAY MITIGATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
RISK FROM EVOLVING...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39639078 40108854 40408676 40998492 42208458 42248341
            41178374 40208462 39388693 38989004 39639078



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