Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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866
ACUS11 KWNS 291238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291238
TXZ000-291415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291238Z - 291415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A SUPERCELL CENTERED OVER LAMB/HALE COUNTY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT NEAR-TERM...SHOULD THIS
OCCUR A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A LONE SUPERCELL HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST HOUR AND IS
CENTERED ON LAMB/HALE COUNTY AS OF 1230Z. DURING ITS LIFE CYCLE...A
TIGHT MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPED BUT HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED. LBB VWP DATA
SAMPLED THE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH AN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. WHILE THIS
STORM FORMED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE NOW ACCELERATING SURFACE
CYCLONE...STORM DEVELOPMENT IN FLANKING CUMULUS TO ITS SOUTH/EAST
HAS FAILED TO OCCUR. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF SIGNAL IN
CAMS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR WARM FRONT TO OFFER
ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE
TO ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR ALL HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34210209 34560132 34470051 34249991 33869950 33339954
            32949988 32850051 32970146 33550211 33910224 34210209




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