Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251845
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251845Z - 252115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY BETWEEN
21-23Z FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED WARMING AND
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION S OF THE PRIMARY FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS FROM W-CNTRL INTO NERN OK AS OF 18Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING TO ABOVE 80 F WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 60 F. GIVEN VERY
COLD PROFILES ALOFT...THIS IS CREATING SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITH
LARGE LIFTED INDICES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS SWRN OK. CU FIELDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH
A CAPPING INVERSION STILL EXISTS. HOWEVER...INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS WELL AS HEATING MAY BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH
MIDLEVEL CONVECTION POSSIBLY HELPING TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT
DOWNSTREAM. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THIS WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TOO EARLY RELATIVE TO CAP EROSION...WITH RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE
POSSIBLE BEHIND. NONETHELESS...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE.

TO THE N...A MORE FOCUSED ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG THE
FRONT. INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SEVERE STORMS TRAINING NEWD ACROSS OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN
MO/NWRN AR. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT
DEPENDENT ON STORM MODE. WIND-DRIVEN HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS WELL.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY QUICKLY BECOME
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...BUT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO COULD STILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35789842 36919653 37209577 37229512 36969474 36399454
            35929451 35669472 35359516 35069564 34439657 34199735
            34369831 34879870 35579864 35789842



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