Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271621
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-271715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE CATSKILLS/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AREA SSWWD ACROSS
WRN NJ/ERN PA INTO MD/NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271621Z - 271715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK TO INCREASE AS STORMS ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM
ERN PA SWD INTO NWRN VA ATTM...AHEAD OF ONGOING/WEAK PRECIPITATION
BAND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND INVOF AN ASSOCIATED/NNE-SSW
SURFACE TROUGH.  HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S TO LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS/ HAS YIELDED AN AXIS OF 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE INCREASE -- BOTH
IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- WHERE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NEAR TERM.  HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER -- AND THUS GREATER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL --
FARTHER S MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER KINEMATICS TO
SUPPORT SEVERE RISK AS FAR S AS THE DC METRO AREA.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   42247370 41927327 40877402 38857569 38597706 38857833
            40387733 41937601 42267523 42247370




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