Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222254
MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-230100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222254Z - 230100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NCNTRL LAKE MI SWWD INTO SERN WI. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE VERY UNSTABLE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 3000-3500 J/KG
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES AT BASE OF AN EML HAVE ADVECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR WHICH...IN ADDITION TO APPARENT MODEST
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTS STORMS MIGHT STRUGGLE AS THEY TRY TO
DEVELOP SEWD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EXISTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WINDS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42608990 42968976 43518866 44128704 44868577 43888570
            42378716 41838870 41968974 42608990



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