Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251513
TXZ000-OKZ000-251715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
            30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
            34869867 34989626




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