Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 051713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051712
MEZ000-NHZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MAINE AND NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051712Z - 052315Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR...WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND NH THROUGH 23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

DISCUSSION...17Z RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES A 1005 MB SFC LOW TO THE
SE OF COASTAL MA. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW OVER THE EAST COAST MOVES QUICKLY NEWD TO THE
COASTAL CANADIAN PROVINCES BY TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT
TO THE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AS IT DEVELOPS
NEWD AS WELL. BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NEWD WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM MOTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS
COASTAL MAINE/NH WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. A DEEP
SATURATED PROFILE THROUGH MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE PER 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS AT KOKX AND KGYX COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES
AROUND 1 INCH/HR WILL BE COMMON FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER FORCING AND REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MA
WITHIN ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY BANDS ON THE KBOX RADAR...LOCALLY
HIGHER RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY 22-23Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC
LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM COASTAL MAINE.

..GLEASON.. 02/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   43107056 42887086 43107136 43747080 44486995 45366731
            45056686 44666701 44086847 43726968 43407023 43107056




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