Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180011
AZZ000-180115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180011Z - 180115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TSTM CLUSTERS PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER DESERTS OF CNTRL AZ.
A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS SHOW A SEMI-CONTINUOUS CLUSTER OF
TSTMS PROPAGATING SWWD OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM TOWARDS THE LOWER
DESERTS OF S-CNTRL AZ. AMBIENT MIDLEVEL WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH WEAK
GENERALLY WLY SFC WINDS...COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW/TSTM INTERACTIONS
AND MERGERS...APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR MAINTAINING MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVELY
MORE MOIST MIDLEVELS IS SUPPORTING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH MLCAPE OBSERVED NEAR 900 J/KG PER TUS 18/00Z
SOUNDING. CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS SUGGEST A HIGHER PROBABILITY TSTMS WILL
REACH ERN PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO AREA AFTER 01Z...GIVEN CURRENT
ESTIMATED STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25 KT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
TO LOCALIZED SVR WIND GUSTS.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31790922 32011053 32361118 32641153 33231194 33621219
            33971214 34151189 34181154 34021119 33601072 32971022
            32710962 32580926 32170908 31790922




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