Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212359
TXZ000-220100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the TX South Plains...Permian
Basin...Concho Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212359Z - 220100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible for the next 1-2 hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A few strong thunderstorms are ongoing across portions
of the TX South Plains, Permian Basin, and Concho Valley. This
activity is being focused along a nearly stationary dryline and
slow-moving weak cold frontal boundary. While midlevel flow is
relatively weak, southeasterly low-level flow veering to
west-northwesterly aloft is providing sufficient effective shear for
some storm organization. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support
hail at least approaching an inch in diameter, while large
temperature/dewpoint spreads may support locally damaging outflow
winds.

With a lack of large-scale upper support, these storms are largely
being driven by diurnal heating, and should begin to wane in
intensity in the next 1-2 hours. In the meantime, slow southeastward
propagation of the ongoing activity is expected. Watch issuance will
not be needed due to the limited magnitude and duration of the
threat.

..Dean/Grams.. 03/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31650098 31960105 32390110 32710103 32990006 33029941
            32679906 31959923 31529949 31289997 31300038 31650098




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