Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250932
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-251530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX / EXTREME SERN OK AND NWRN LA /
SWRN AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 250932Z - 251530Z

SUMMARY...MIXED P-TYPE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS
INITIALLY FORECAST FROM NEAR THE N-CNTRL TX I-35 CORRIDOR EWD INTO
THE ARKLATEX.  FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.15 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW --RATES APPROACHING/AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR-- IS POSSIBLE
GENERALLY AFTER 11 UTC OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX AND EVENTUALLY
FARTHER ENE INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD OVER
N-CNTRL TX INTO NERN TX AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OVER
FAR W TX.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS TEMPS AROUND 32 FROM THE
N-SIDE OF THE DFW METROPLEX AND INCLUDING AREAS E INTO NERN TX.  THE
00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A SIZABLE LAYER AOA FREEZING /H85-H7/.
MOISTENING AND ASCENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LAYER HAS CONSIDERABLY
COOLED THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS A FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS
BEGINNING OVER NERN TX.  FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.15 INCH PER 3
HOURS SEEM LIKELY WITH HEAVIER BURSTS 0.10-0.15 INCH PER 1 HOUR
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS BASED ON OBSERVED RATES NEAR DFW.
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL COLUMNAR COOLING IS FORECAST AND A EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS EXPECTED.

AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT /DCVA/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG THE N-SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS TOWARDS
MORNING...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /1 INCH PER
HOUR/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM
N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AR.

..SMITH.. 02/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32789332 32459469 32469605 32879677 33099772 33509771
            33679634 33949450 33919272 33609241 33139255 32789332



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