Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
            30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
            31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005



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