Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221700
OHZ000-KYZ000-221930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OH...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221700Z - 221930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
OH AND PERHAPS INTO NRN KY THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A
FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A TSTM CLUSTER CONTINUES SPREADING SWD ACROSS
OHIO...WHICH DEVELOPED EARLY IN THE MORNING WITHIN A TRAILING ZONE
OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NERN CONUS.
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DISLODGE FROM STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING S OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...PROPAGATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR SUBSEQUENT
TSTM MOTION SWD THROUGH PARTS OF SRN OHIO -- CENTERED ON THE LOWER
SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY -- THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE CONVECTION IS LARGELY EVOLVING IN AN ANAFRONTAL-FLOW
REGIME...INCIPIENT INTENSIFYING CORES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AMALGAMATED MESO-BETA-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRECEDING DEEPER CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
EROSION OF MLCINH...WHILE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
IN THE CONVECTIVELY-UNPERTURBED ENVIRONMENT -- BASED ON A MODIFIED
12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB. AS SUCH...SOME RISK FOR STRONGER TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD TOWARD/ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND PERHAPS
INTO NRN KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE PAUCITY OF DEEP SHEAR WILL
MITIGATE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A GREATER SVR RISK. CONVECTIVE
PROCESSING ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT PROSPECTS
FOR ROBUST CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38848419 39208369 39218259 38738234 38348267 38218342
            38428431 38848419




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