Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 201808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201807
MOZ000-KSZ000-202030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201807Z - 202030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS
NWRN MO INTO NERN KS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY BE EXTENDED WWD AT
20Z...WITH WATCH ISSUANCE CONDITIONAL ON STORM COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
SEWD OUT OF NEB AND NOW INTO NERN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL IS ONGOING.
THESE CELLS INITIALLY BEGAN A BIT ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY
FEED FROM THE W AND PER 12Z OAX SOUNDING...BUT MODIFIED TOP SOUNDING
WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES SUGGEST STORMS ARE NOW SURFACE BASED...AND
AS SUCH...WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO TURN RIGHT RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS SEWD MOTION. VEERING FLOW ALOFT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WHICH CONTINUE TO WARM RESULTS IN A SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME...THE EXISTING CELL MAY BEGIN TO BOW AS MORE
OUTFLOW IS PRODUCED...WITH VEERING STORM MOTION TOWARD THE S. AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD ALONG I-70 FURTHER SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS IS
BECOMING PRIMED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

IF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN A WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39499600 39769599 39899571 39909549 39389411 38939391
            38449394 38089424 38019495 38099578 38259624 38709625
            39109601 39499600



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