Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 082042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082042
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-082145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV...MD...DE...NJ...SE PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082042Z - 082145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY SOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD FROM SRN PA ACROSS CNTRL VA ALONG WHICH DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE 60S F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO
THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THE LINE OVER
ERN WV MOVES INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE
ESTIMATED IN THE 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM RANGE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE. AT 2018Z...EKN REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54
KT WHICH CONFIRMS A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LINE IN ERN WV. THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT 50 TO 55 KTS INTO
NRN VA...MD AND SERN PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37697701 37597872 38357966 39927845 40927680 40977508
            39867420 37697701




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