Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 282304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282303
NCZ000-VAZ000-290030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119...

VALID 282303Z - 290030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC. A SEVERE CELL OR TWO MAY MOVE OUTSIDE THE
EASTERN BOUND OF THE WATCH...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED IN
SPACE AND TIME FOR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WW 119 THIS EVENING...WITH MULTIPLE LARGE HAIL REPORTS
NOTED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. KRAX VWP AND MESOANALYSIS DATA
SUGGEST AROUND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...AND A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELL/MULTICELL MODES
HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. WHILE THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
STABILIZATION THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE HAIL/WIND
THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SOME THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY EASTWARD...MODULATED
LOCALLY BY PROPAGATION FROM MERGING COLD POOLS/UPSCALE GROWTH AND/OR
NON-LINEAR EFFECTS IN SPLITTING CELLS. SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NARROWING WEDGE OF REMAINING SURFACE
BUOYANCY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THOUGH...DUE TO A SEA BREEZE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NC AND A SFC FRONT OVER NORTHERN NC. THEREFORE...THE
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 119.

..PICCA.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   35877983 36937921 36907698 36587632 35777566 35437567
            35007634 34987783 35037828 35467982 35877983




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