Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241954
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO...THE NRN WV PANHANDLE...SWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241954Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR CENTERED ON THE SIDNEY OHIO AREA THROUGH COLUMBUS AND
FARTHER E ACROSS ZANESVILLE...WHEELING...TOWARD ALTOONA PA. WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL OHIO N OF INTERSTATE 70 TOWARD THE
MARYSVILLE/DELAWARE AREAS. A MORE PROMINENT CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS
MOVING ACROSS WRN PA...WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN MCV THAT EARLIER
INTERCEPTED A NEWD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. OTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
ONGOING BETWEEN THESE REGIONS...ACROSS PARTS OF E-CNTRL OHIO.

IN WRN PA...REAR-INFLOW CHANNELS ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCV-ENHANCED ACTIVITY ARE LOCALLY SUPPORTING STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
THE CORRESPONDING MESO-BETA-SCALE MCS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ESEWD
ACROSS WARM/MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER...THE ONLY
MODEST...MCS-RELATED COLD POOL STRENGTH/SIZE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE
SVR-WIND RISK ISOLATED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS PARTS OF
SWRN PA -- WITH FLANKING CONVECTION CROSSING THE NRN WV PANHANDLE --
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

ASIDE FROM THE WRN-PA/NRN-WV-PANHANDLE ACTIVITY...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION INTO OH WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED WHILE GRADUALLY
SPREADING SEWD. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY PREFERENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION ALONG PERIPHERIES OF AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS
INTO THE STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE INTERSTATE-70 CORRIDOR. DEEP
SHEAR IS WEAK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THOUGH DCAPE REACHING NEAR 1000 J/KG MAY FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS -- PARTICULARLY WITH CONVECTION SPREADING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40258268 40218350 40518424 40438465 40148457 39888421
            39668336 39628230 39688075 39867910 40277834 40847879
            41107945 40688024 40428114 40308181 40258268



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