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000
FXUS64 KMEG 171955
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME OF SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (17/18Z-18/18Z)

COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KMKL AND KTUP THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TO MVFR...THEN BECOMING VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 18/05Z...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z/14Z AND VFR AROUND
18/16Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON S-SW 6-9 KTS. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
S-SW 5-7 KTS AFTER 18/13Z.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  87  71  90 /  30  20  10  10
MKL  64  84  67  87 /  50  20  20  10
JBR  64  85  69  89 /  20  20  10  10
TUP  67  85  68  88 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$