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000
FXUS64 KMEG 231513
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1013 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
IT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
PARIS TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AND INTO EAST
ARKANSAS. AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
WITH TEMPERATURES PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNING/S
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HOWEVER...THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER
80S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-40 AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH IS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. SEVERAL ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWER
WITH THIS FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A RIDGE
BUILDING IN QUICKER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF. NONETHELESS...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE
SUBSEQUENT BUILDING RIDGE...DECIDED TO ADD MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT GROUND FOG OVER NORTHEAST MS MAY AFFECT
TUP THROUGH 13Z...THOUGH THE CHANCES OF ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
TUP IS CLOSING FAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUNLIGHT.

DRY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONTINUING
AREAWIDE. NORTHERLY TAIL WIND COMPONENTS SHOULD PREVAIL AT OR BELOW
7KT BEYOND 08Z FOR THE MEM CARGO OUTBOUND.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  83  57  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
MKL  80  51  73  47 /  10   0   0   0
JBR  81  52  73  49 /  10   0   0   0
TUP  83  57  76  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$