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000
FXUS64 KMEG 151130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
630 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED...THUS NO CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. A SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

FOR SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH PAINTING A HOTTER DAY WITH
LESS CONVECTION THAN EARLIER FORECAST WITH MORE CAPPING. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. KEPT THE EARLIER POPS GOING RANGING
FROM 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH TO 20 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME HIGH WITH THE STRONG HEATING. THERE IS
SOME CONDITIONAL MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS. CONFIDENCE ATTM IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SEVERE IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT DID MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO
NORTHWEST TN. MODELS ARE LESS INDICATIVE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE ONE NOT TO FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST)...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION
AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH TWO INCHES. THINK SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AT
LEAST TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A FEW STRONG...MAYBE SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR NOW MENTIONED THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE BEING LOW ATTM
AND PROBABLY BEING DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FEATURES. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO DEVELOP TOO STRONG OF A
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH THAT FORCES THE COLD FRONT MORE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FOR TUESDAY
AND PUSHED THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER NORTH.

KEPT WEDNESDAY RAINFREE BASED ON THE 00Z GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL AR KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE KMKL AREA PRODUCING
MVFR VISIBILITIES WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  92  73  95  75 /   0  10  30  40
MKL  89  67  92  72 /   0  10  30  40
JBR  92  69  94  70 /   0  10  40  40
TUP  89  69  92  72 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$