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000
FXUS64 KMEG 151243
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
743 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MILDER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THANKS TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN RUNNING 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RADAR
WAS FREE OF ECHOES AND THE SKIES WERE CLEAR.

00Z MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MIDSOUTH
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THREE DISTINCT WEATHER
MAKERS ANTICIPATED. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR ALBUQUERQUE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD WAS SLOWLY
SURGING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS TODAY AND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB EASILY INTO THE MID 80S. BELIEVE RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND REMAIN WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
ACROSS ARKANSAS TOMORROW AND ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP TO NEAR 80F. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
JOURNEY EAST ON FRIDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY. IT`S ON
SATURDAY WHERE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
PULSE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO NEAR
7.5C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70F. FOR NOW...WILL PUT A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG STORM OVER THE EAST IN THE FUTURE HWO.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY. A
STOUT LOW LEVEL CAP OF NEAR 3C IS ALSO EXPECTED...SO THE AREA WILL
WILL BE DRY FROM CONVECTION BUT ON THE VERGE OF UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID WITH UPPER 80F HIGHS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. THIS AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE THIRD SYSTEM WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES...BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE ENERGY WILL SEND A SHARP
AND ACTIVE COLD FRONT SOUTH AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE
STORMY WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW SOME SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS FEASIBLE. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S WITH CONSIDERABLY
LOWER HUMIDITY.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN VFR.
A SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT KJBR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  85  66  82  65 /  10  20  30  20
MKL  84  62  80  61 /  10  10  30  20
JBR  83  63  80  63 /  10  30  30  20
TUP  85  62  82  62 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$