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000
FXUS64 KMEG 140901
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
AT 3 AM...TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 50S AROUND PARIS TN.

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY MAKING
FOR A PLEASANT MID JUNE DAY WEATHERWISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL WITH CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AND DRY WITH NO RAIN.

A CHANGE TO A WET PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THINK MAY SEE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MAYBE MORE THAN ONE) MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE...BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLY THE THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN LATER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT DID MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 5 KTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 15/01Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  89  67  92  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKL  86  57  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
JBR  87  63  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
TUP  88  60  91  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$