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000
FXUS64 KMEG 130806
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZES. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY MID
CLOUDS SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. CURRENT APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND HAS BEEN INACTIVE IN
GENERATING CONVECTION AS A STOUT CAP REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA...PROVIDING SOME RELIEF IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER
THE NORTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
BUT ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE AS A 2-3C CAP WILL BE IN PLACE.
INTERESTING TO SEE THE 00Z NAM KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION
FREE...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY.
THE LATEST ECMWF TAKES A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. STILL FEEL THAT
STORMS WILL FORM AND BE WIDELY ISOLATED OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE INTENDED FOR
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WHERE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE 3-8PM TIME FRAME. LATER TONIGHT LIGHT NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A MODIFIED COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO CHANGE TO THE ON-GOING FORECAST THIS
PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING A RETURN TO DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCH BACK TO THE LOW 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
SPARKING OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS
THAT THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...KEEPING A
THREAT FOR RAIN THERE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NORTH CATCHES A
BREAK. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 90-95F
RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES RETURNING TO THE LOW 100`S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/TUP STARTING AS EARLY AS 13/16-18Z AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT OUT VCTS MENTION AT JBR
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. THINK BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONDITIONAL VCTS WILL BE AT TUP. SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AND
VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND DECREASE TO NORTH/NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER
14/01Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  68  88  67 /  20  10   0   0
MKL  90  63  84  60 /  20   0   0  10
JBR  92  65  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
TUP  93  65  88  63 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$