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000
FXUS64 KMEG 171523
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1023 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEFTOVER MCV CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY
EXPANDING N/NW INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AND INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN AR. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM...ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK...HAS KICKED OFF AN MCS MOVING
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN GENERATING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND SBCAPES BEGINNING TO TOP 2000 J/KG AS
SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF
FUEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ORGANIZATION.
ALSO...DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STORMS. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...MAY TWEAK SOME POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDS.

SJM

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. A
WET...OCCASIONALLY STORMY...WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLDING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. A TURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR TODAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFTED INDICES DECREASE TO BETWEEN
MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2800
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE AS STRONG
OF A SHORT WAVE AS THEY DID IN EARLIER RUNS. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME AROUND TO BEING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTH MS. BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFT IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS AND A SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL AR AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST
WITH SUMMER HEAT RETURNING ALONG WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

AGAIN BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
TIMING. EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL SITES WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING AT TUP INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE REMAINING IN VICINITY AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THIS OCCURRING...AND SCATTERED STORMS
COULD EASILY CONTINUE AT THE SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS TO NEAR JBR.
WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...WITH VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN AND AROUND STORMS. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  88  72  86  71 /  70  70  60  10
MKL  87  69  84  67 /  70  70  60  10
JBR  88  70  87  69 /  70  70  40  10
TUP  88  72  86  70 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$