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000
FXUS64 KMEG 241918
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
218 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...

PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ONLY A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INCREASES AND A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES SUBTLY MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS LOW THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE PLEASANT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND AROUND 80F.
AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW NIGHT DEWPOINTS
WILL BEGIN CREEPING BACK INTO THE 60S...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO AT...OR ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD/STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STOUT CAP ALSO FORMING NEAR
850MB. THUS THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT WORK WEEK WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID...BUT FREE OF PRECIPITATION.

AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST STARTING THURSDAY
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES ALLOWING THE CAP TO
WEAKEN. THIS MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHT THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES HOWEVER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN
JET FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE UNORGANIZED BUT OF A PULSE
TYPE NATURE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON 15-20 KTS FROM THE NE/ENE ACROSS THE REGION...DUE
TO PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 01Z AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

AC3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  54  81  62  87 /   0   0  10  20
MKL  47  79  54  85 /   0   0  10  20
JBR  50  79  59  86 /   0   0  10  30
TUP  50  80  56  87 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$