000
FXUS64 KMEG 241419
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
919 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAS
PRODUCED SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE TWEAKED
THE SKY COVER WORDING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACCORDINGLY EASY OF A MARTIN TENNESSEE TO HOUSTON
MISSISSIPPI LINE. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY ON
TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VERY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY PROVIDES A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...SOME DISAGREEMENT
FOR SUNDAY WITH THE EURO/NAM/CAN SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS MUCH DRIER PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY
LESSER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A LARGE SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT MAY BE NEAR
THE REGION AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR STARTS TO RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM NEARBY. TEMPS WILLSTART TO
PUSH BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
--ABS

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE
PERIOD...AND THEREFORE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
ALL MODELS SHOWING RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ENDS AND NEXT WORK WEEK BEGINS. THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SE CONUS ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO WORK
NORTH FROM THE GULF...WITH THE RIDGE MAINLY OVER THE TOP OF THE
AREA IT SHOULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP
CHCS...THOUGH IF THE RIDGE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY OFF THE SE COAST THEN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL PUSH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MANY
UPPER 80S AND MAYBE EVEN 90 POSSIBLE FROM MID WEEK INTO THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
--ABS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA COULD BRIEFLY EFFECT KTUP FOR AN HOUR TO TWO AS IT DRIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS. SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
6 KTS AFTER 01Z.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  55  80  61 /   0   0   0  10
MKL  72  46  79  54 /   0   0   0  10
JBR  72  51  78  58 /   0   0   0  10
TUP  78  48  80  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$