000
FXUS64 KMEG 181214
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
714 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED IN THE OBS NEAR
I-40 AND HAS ONLY BEEN INCHING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT...BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE BEFORE 18Z. TONIGHT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS AS THE CURRENT
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD SWINGS TO THE EAST COAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEARLY
A RAIN-FREE PERIOD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DON`T
APPEAR TO GET OVERLY HIGH...MAINTAINING AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
OF 16-17C OVER THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATED DOWNWARD CREATES SEASONAL
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE COMFORTABLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS EXPAND THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE RETURN TO 70+ DEWPOINTS.
COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...HEAT
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREST 100F. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR
MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEPENDING
WHERE THE HIGH CENTER/WEAKNESSES SET UP.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

A MIX OF CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES RANGING FROM LIFR TO MVFR. LOWEST CIGS REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED JUST SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR AS OF 12Z. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR BY
THIS TIME. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...EXPECTING A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT KTUP. ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD ADVECT IN
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT KTUP THIS MORNING...AND
NORTHERLY AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. KTUP
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AND POTENTIALLY LOWER. HAVE PRECLUDED LOWER VSBYS AT
THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE STILL NOT TOO HIGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
LOWER MUCH MORE THAN THE MID 60S WHICH COMBINED WITH A WET GROUND
SHOULD RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT HOW
DENSE FOG WILL BE...BUT LOWER VSBYS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  86  70  90  71 /  20  10  10  10
MKL  85  65  88  65 /  20  10  10  10
JBR  86  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
TUP  84  68  90  68 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$