000
FXUS64 KMEG 170504
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1204 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED OVERALL POPS A BIT DUE THE SHOWERS NATURE OF THE
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR UPSTREAM. ADDITIONALLY...PLAYED DOWN THE
THUNDER A LITTLE. NEVERTHELESS...AS A WEAK OPEN LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT COULD APPROACH A HALF
OF AN INCH IN THE DELTA AREAS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT THE AMOUNT OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS WELL EAST OF
THE REGION. BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION SO THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS
&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT KTUP. HOWEVER CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA ELSEWHERE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
VCSH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER 7-9Z AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THINK BEST TIMING AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL BE
AFTER 8Z AND 13Z FOR KMKL AND KTUP. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO
MVFR AFTER 8Z AND TO IFR AROUND 12-13Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AFTER 16Z AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. LIGHT SE WINDS
INITIALLY EXPECTED AT KMEM. AFTER 7-8Z...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  80  68  86  71 /  70  40  20  10
MKL  77  66  83  68 /  80  50  20  20
JBR  78  66  84  69 /  70  20  20  10
TUP  79  67  84  68 /  70  50  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$