000
FXUS64 KMEG 180250
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...AND SOFTENED THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING. DISCUSSED THE
NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH
TENNESSEE...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE MISSISSIPPI STATE
LINE...BUT BASED ON ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AND MOVEMENT OF
STORMS FEEL LIKE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AN URBAN AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 11:15 PM.
HODOGRAPHS DO NOT INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BACKBUILDING
STORMS AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE FLOOD ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE
EXPLOSIVE NOR WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK...ALTHOUGH COLD POOLS BENEATH STORMS...AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS
TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST AREA WIDE. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND THERE IS ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE. DESPITE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF EXPECTED
LOWS...SO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE OLD MCV THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST TO THE TN RIVER WITH THE
ASSOCD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN
AL. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS
VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES AOA 2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO UNSTABLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. AS A RESULT
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE
BIGGER THREAT. HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOST
OF THE PRECIP TO BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A
SMALL POP IN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT OTRW EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDS AND CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO HAVE ONE
TO TWO INCHES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY TO THE MIDSOUTH
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NOT WORTH
MENTIONING ATTM.

SJM

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WILL BE THROUGH 17/03Z...WITH A DIMINISHING POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY A TEMPO
FOR -TSRA AT MEM THROUGH 17/01Z...AND MKL BETWEEN 17/01-03Z.
OTHERWISE...VCTS SHOULD HANDLE THUNDER POTENTIAL WELL EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT MKL/TUP. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER AND
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MKL/JBR/TUP. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  87  71  90 /  80  50  10  10
MKL  69  85  66  88 /  80  50  10  10
JBR  71  87  67  90 /  70  30  10  10
TUP  71  85  70  90 /  80  70  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$