000
FXUS64 KMEG 252303 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATON DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

MODELS ARE HOLDING TRUE TO THE ON-GOING MIDSOUTH FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TWO WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE THAT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
BOTH TOMORROW AND MEMORIAL DAY. AGAIN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK FOR THIS STRAY CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE...AS WELL AS A SLOW RISE IN THE
HUMIDITY STARTING TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE APPALACHIANS/MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BUILD FURTHER STARTING TUESDAY. BELIEVE THE
AREA WILL BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE EDGE OF THE RING OF
FIRE STAYING JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE GFS AND EURO AGREE THAT AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN
JUNE... THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT THOUGH IS EVIDENT IN HOW THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE AREA. FOR CERTAIN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE SO A RISK FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST...AS
WELL AS A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FROM STORMS.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (26/00Z-27/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT
SE-S. WINDS SUNDAY S-SW 5-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  62  86  65  87 /  10  10  20  10
MKL  53  84  60  86 /  10  10  20  10
JBR  59  85  63  84 /  10  20  20  20
TUP  56  86  61  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$