000
FXUS64 KMEG 160231
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...EVEN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP TO
SPEED UP THE PROCESS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES
BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY 55-57 SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEITHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
TOMORROW...JUST SHOWERS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ALMOST
PERFECT FOR MY NEWLY PLANTED GARDEN.

30/SIRMON

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

PWB

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHRAS OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 12Z
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SSW WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE 8 KTS AT KMEM OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 15Z.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  83  67  83 /  20  30  30  30
MKL  61  80  63  80 /  20  30  30  30
JBR  64  78  63  82 /  30  40  30  30
TUP  61  84  65  84 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$