000
FXUS64 KMEG 150423
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PROBABLY NOR QUITE AS WARM TOMORROW AS IT
WAS TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO CREEP HIGHER AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT ALL FEATURING A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH TRACKING OUT OF THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE REFLECTION ACCOMPANYING IT. LOOKS LIKE JUST
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED GENERIC THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH
SW WINDS AT 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. A FEW SITES IN NE AR
HAVE REACHED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH CORNING HITTING 90. NOT A
CLOUD IN SIGHT OR ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW WISPS OF
THIN CIRRUS NEAR THE BOOTHEEL.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MILD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SW BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE FOR ONE MORE DAY THOUGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AROUND THE MID 80S WITH A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF WILL KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS LOOK RATHER MEAGER WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMICS
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW QPF TOTALS OVERALL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD
AT NIGHT THOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN A BIT BY
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

FRIDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO RISE. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE
GULF STARTS TO WEAKEN ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO PUSH NORTH IN
THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN
RIVER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL START TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD THE MID
80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A 500
MB SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
KICK OF A MCS...THE GFS DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO MORE THAN THE
ECMWF DOES...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY THROW OUT SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT COULD PUSH INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL PLACE A SMALL POP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS
UPPER 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WITH RAIN FREE AND WARM CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN STATES WILL KICK A COLD FRONT
INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE ECMWF LOOKS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT MUCH SLOWER WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 6-9 KTS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-14
KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 18-22 KTS AFTER 15/15Z AND DECREASE TO
4-7 KTS AFTER 16/01Z.

CJC
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  65  84  65  81 /   0  10  20  30
MKL  61  83  62  79 /   0  10  10  30
JBR  63  84  62  79 /   0  10  30  30
TUP  59  85  62  82 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$