000
FXUS64 KMEG 160535
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...EVEN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP TO
SPEED UP THE PROCESS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES
BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY 55-57 SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEITHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
TOMORROW...JUST SHOWERS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ALMOST
PERFECT FOR MY NEWLY PLANTED GARDEN.

30/SIRMON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS
COULD EFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH
12Z INCLUDING KMEM AND KJBR. PLAN TO CARRY VCSH ALONG WITH TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH 11/12Z. CHANCES FOR TSRAS WILL
AGAIN OCCUR AFTER 18Z ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KRM/JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  81  67  82  70 /  30  30  30  20
MKL  80  64  80  66 /  30  30  30  20
JBR  78  64  80  67 /  40  30  30  20
TUP  81  65  82  67 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$