000
FXUS64 KMEG 162001
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT THE AMOUNT OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS WELL EAST OF
THE REGION. BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION SO THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (16/18Z-17/18Z)

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MENTIONED VCTS / VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AFTER
17/05Z...SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH 8-12 KTS. WINDS
DECREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SE-S AT 5-8 KTS...THEN INCREASING
LATE TONIGHT 7-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  66  80  68  86 /  80  70  40  20
MKL  65  77  66  83 /  70  80  50  20
JBR  64  78  66  84 /  80  70  20  20
TUP  65  79  67  84 /  60  70  50  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$