000
FXUS64 KMEG 141557
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE GULF COAST HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
STATES TO CREATE BREEZY CONDS HERE IN THE MIDSOUTH. UPPED THE
WINDS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTRW NO CHANGES NEEDED.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

A LARGER DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE DELTA...AND LOW 50S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WHERE DRIER AIR IS STILL HANGING ON.
SKIES WERE CLEAR AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH
REPORTED AT MEM.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW THE RIDGE AND HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AS SOUTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THE HUMIDITY. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY CREEPING
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE EMERGING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM BECOMES EVEN MORE
DISORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH TWO DAY
QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED AS NEARLY ALL THE
LIFT/ENERGY FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE USED IN PRODUCING CLOUD
COVER. ALSO NOTED IS POOR LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST SKEW-T`S
INDICATING A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DURING THE NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THE NOW OPEN WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
CAROLINA`S AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY WITH
THIS SECOND WAVE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SURGE MID SIXTY
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
MCC/MCS. IF SO...AN OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS MAY VERY WELL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CWA CAUSING A FOCUS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO BREAK
OUT ON SATURDAY...WHEN OUR CAPE PROFILES APPEAR MORE IMPRESSIVE.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE...A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 70F....BRINGING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 90S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED GFS AND EURO SHOW A SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EAST. A FEW LEADING SHORTWAVES ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND A THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS FEASIBLE...ALONG WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP BETWEEN 7-10 KTS OVERNIGHT
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  86  65  84  64 /   0   0  10  30
MKL  85  61  83  60 /   0   0  10  20
JBR  86  63  82  62 /   0   0  10  30
TUP  84  60  84  62 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$