000
FXUS64 KMEG 141838
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
138 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. NORTHEAST
WINDS FROM THE SFC HIGH WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA. AT 3 AM...TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 50S AROUND
PARIS TN.

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY MAKING
FOR A PLEASANT MID JUNE DAY WEATHERWISE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL WITH CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AND DRY WITH NO RAIN.

A CHANGE TO A WET PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THINK MAY SEE A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MAYBE MORE THAN ONE) MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE...BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLY THE THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN LATER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT DID MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE TONIGHT. E/NE WINDS AT 10 KTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  89  67  92  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKL  86  57  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
JBR  87  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
TUP  88  60  91  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$