000
FXUS64 KMEG 181736
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID
SOUTH. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
INVOF THE FRONT WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NW MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND SW TENNESSEE. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL AND NW TENNESSEE. CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS CLEARING WORKS SOUTH AND PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH. BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND NE MISSISSIPPI INVOF
THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST UP NORTH WHERE THE SUN IS OUT
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW 80S WHERE THE CLOUDS HANG IN.
UPDATED POPS AND TEMPS. FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED IN THE OBS NEAR
I-40 AND HAS ONLY BEEN INCHING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE RAIN
COOLED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE
RULED OUT...BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE BEFORE 18Z. TONIGHT
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS AS THE CURRENT
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD SWINGS TO THE EAST COAST. PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEARLY
A RAIN-FREE PERIOD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES DON`T
APPEAR TO GET OVERLY HIGH...MAINTAINING AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
OF 16-17C OVER THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATED DOWNWARD CREATES SEASONAL
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE COMFORTABLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS EXPAND THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SWING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW THE RETURN TO 70+ DEWPOINTS.
COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...HEAT
INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREST 100F. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR
MINIMAL...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEPENDING
WHERE THE HIGH CENTER/WEAKNESSES SET UP.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM AND KMKL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KJBR AND
KTUP. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY PRDUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  83  70  90  71 /  20  10  10  10
MKL  82  65  88  65 /  20  10  10  10
JBR  86  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
TUP  83  68  90  68 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$