National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMEG 160209
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
909 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES
AS OF 8 PM CDT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. RAIN FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

LATEST 00Z NAM INDICATES MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT AT
JAN...OHX...AND UPSTREAM OF LZK COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AT OR ABOVE 2000
J/KG...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED MAINLY UNORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS AND MAY CONSIDER INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE 00Z GFS BEGINS TO ARRIVE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. WINDS
HAVE TURNED AROUND TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY OPENING UP
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REALLY
THINK THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY HINGE ON WHERE OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED FROM EXPECTED CONVECTION TONIGHT
ACROSS MID-MISSOURI. THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS INDICATE A LINE MAY
DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CONVECTION WOULD THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE
CONVECTION COULD PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER THIS IS NO SURE BET SO WILL LOWER
POPS TO 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP 20S TO THE SOUTH WHERE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST BACK TO HIGHER POPS SINCE THE
SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE
A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE LOCATED. JUST
TOO HARD TO PINPOINT BEYOND 12-18 HOURS WHEN DEALING WITH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALL WEEK EITHER FROM
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OR FROM A REMNANT MCS THAT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AND PUSH EAST INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTH.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
70S. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
LEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
WILL PROVIDE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDSOUTH.

KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW. BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. STORMS COULD DIMINISH VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND RESULT
IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. WILL INCLUDING VCTS AT ALL SITES BY 21Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  94  75  92 /  10  20  30  60
MKL  68  91  72  90 /  10  30  30  70
JBR  70  93  72  88 /  10  30  30  70
TUP  70  92  72  93 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$