Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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AXUS74 KMEG 230438
DGTMEG
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-MOC069-155-
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-047-053-
069-071-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-157-167-183-231645-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2016

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS FURTHER DETERIORATE OVER THE MIDSOUTH...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE PAST
MONTH AS MOST OF THE REGION IS NOW CATEGORIZED IN AT LEAST SEVERE
DROUGHT BY THE US DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT. AREAS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAVE BEEN IMPACTED THE WORST WITH AREAS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI NOW CATEGORIZED AS BEING IN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAVE ALLOWED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE HOPE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT MONTH.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE HAD AN IMPACT TO AREA FARMERS AND INTERESTS
IN AGRICULTURE. VERY DRY PASTURES HAVE FORCED FARMERS TO FEED HAY
TO CATTLE EARLIER THAN USUAL WHICH HAS PUT A STRAIN ON HAY SUPPLY
WITH CONCERNS OF SHORTAGES OVER THE WINTER MONTHS. IN ADDITION DRY
CONDITIONS WERE THE CAUSE OF INCREASED IRRIGATION COSTS AS FARMERS
HAD TO IRRIGATE MUCH LATER THAN NORMAL WITH AS MANY AS THREE EXTRA
IRRIGATIONS REQUIRED. THERE WERE ALSO REDUCTIONS IN THE YIELDS OF
MANY CROPS REPORTED AS A RESULT OF DRY SOIL CONDITIONS.

DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO LED TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH
REMAINS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR FIRES PRESENT. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED IF BURNING OUTDOORS IN AREAS WHERE IT IS PERMITTED.
LOCAL GOVERNMENT OR FIRE CONTROL OFFICIALS CAN BE CONTACTED
REGARDING ANY BURN RESTRICTIONS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE ENTIRE REGION HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL
WITH MOST LOCALES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PLAGUED THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL MONTHS NOW WITH THE MOST AFFECTED REGIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE SOME 8 TO 12+ INCHES OF
RAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS. THIS IS EVEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT GIVEN MUCH OF THESE DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRED DURING
THE WARMEST PORTION OF THE YEAR WHEN EVAPORATION RATES WERE
ENHANCED WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE NEED FOR MORE IRRIGATION THAN
USUAL. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WERE 4 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WITH THE YEAR 2016 TO DATE ALSO HAVING
BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 22 AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
IN SOME LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THAT STORM WITH THE LATEST
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FORECASTING A 7 DAY TOTAL OF 1.5 INCHES TO NEARLY 3 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SUGGESTS WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL END NOVEMBER AND BEGIN
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER AROUND THE MIDSOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY THE ONE
MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WHILE THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED ODDS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
THREE MONTH OUTLOOK ENCOMPASSING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER JANUARY
AND FEBRUARY SUGGESTS ENHANCED ODDS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY DECEMBER 23 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/.

US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
US DROUGHT PORTAL...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MEG
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://RIVERGAGES.COM

ADDITIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
/NCEI/...HTTP://WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
INFORMATION...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS
AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE
AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7777 WALNUT GROVE ROAD SUITE 1
MEMPHIS TN 38120
PHONE: 901-544-0399
EMAIL: SR-MEG.DROUGHT AT NOAA.GOV

$$

MAYE



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