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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230005
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. FOR THIS EVENING THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING OVER LAND, AS THE
SOLAR HEATING DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION, THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
KEPT VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SINCE THERE ARE STILL A FEW
BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. A WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST. VCSH IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS ON THURSDAY AFTER 18Z. THIS COULD BE CHANGED TO VCTS IN
THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE, IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

..DRIER WEATHER COMING FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
ALONG THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POPS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LOW AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL ONLY
BRING IN DRY AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY...AND WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE STATIONARY FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY BACK NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP THE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS WHERE THEY COULD BUILD TO
6 FEET LATE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  87  72  89 / 20 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  90 / 20 20 10 10
MIAMI            74  89  74  91 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES           72  86  72  88 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE