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000
FXUS62 KMFL 181911
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
311 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The western Atlantic surface high continues to play the dominate
roll in stable atmospheric conditions to wrap up the remainder of
the week. As the high shifts eastward, the winds will veer and
allow for a more distinct southeastward wind flow. With this
assistance, it will allow for more tropical moisture and an
increase in warm air. The warming trend will continue tomorrow
afternoon with highs rising into the mid to upper 80s along the
coasts with the potential for low 90s in the far SW interior. Far
interior RH values will drop into the mid to upper 30%, but weak
wind speeds should help keep the conditions from red flag/fire wx
concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Mid level ridging will slowly start to break down as the weekend
progresses. At the same time, a surface area of high pressure will
continue to shift eastward in the Atlantic. This will allow for
dry conditions to remain in place during this time frame. Winds
will slowly become more southerly across the area as the weekend
progresses allowing for moderating temperatures on Saturday and
Sunday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid to
upper 80s along the coasts to the lower 90s across the interior
and Lake Okeechobee region.

The weather pattern will start to change across South Florida
early next week as a deepening mid level trough pushes across the
Southeast and into the western Atlantic on Monday into Monday
night. At the surface, a frontal boundary will push southeastward
through Northern and Central Florida during the day on Monday.
This front will be weakening as it pushes further south and this
may cause it to stall out just to the north of the area or right
over South Florida heading into Monday night and into the middle
of the week. With the frontal boundary nearby, this may provide
just enough lift to support a chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms during this time frame. The highest
chances of showers and storms still look to remain over the Lake
Okeechobee region and Palm Beach County.

With this being a rather weak front, uncertainty remains high in
regard to the location of the frontal boundary stalling out and if
it will remain in tact or not before actually getting to South
Florida. A weaker frontal boundary will support lower chances of
shower and thunderstorm development during this time frame. The
latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and keeps a
chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across northern
areas during the early and middle portion of the week. This will
continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High
temperatures will generally remain on the warm side as they will
rise into the mid to upper 80s along the coasts and into the lower
90s across the interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. Breezy E/SE winds
continue this afternoon and early evening hours with some gusts
reaching 15 KT. A gulf breeze may develop around 18Z at KAPF
bringing SW winds until 00Z. Light and variable winds at all sites
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The winds will remain southeasterly and weaken to wrap up the
week as the surface high continues to shift eastward. Seas will
generally remain 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A moderate rip current threat will linger along the Atlantic
beaches today with a diminishing trend to close out the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  85  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     67  87  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        70  87  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        70  85  69  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  84  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  70  85  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   70  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  67  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       69  86  70  87 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           69  86  70  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Simmons