Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 221711
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
111 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
A cold front will cross South FL today and push away from the area
tonight. Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially across the east coast metro.
A shortwave moving across the area this afternoon will coincide with
peak heating, so there will be enough support for a few stronger
storms. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few storms may
contain locally damaging wind gusts. High temps this afternoon will
range from the middle 80s north of Alligator Alley to upper 80s
across the far southern peninsula.
Despite the cold front moving away from the area tonight, some
scattered coastal showers will remain possible overnight into early
Tuesday morning as drier air is slow to filter in. There will be a
wide range in temps overnight, with upper 50s over inland SW FL, to
around 70 close to the Atlantic coast.
High pressure over the SE US builds into the area for Tuesday
bringing a return of drier air to the region. NE flow is expected
which will bring cooler temps to the east coast metro, while SW FL
will remain above normal. High temps will range from the upper 70s
to lower 80s across the east coast metro to middle 80s across SW
FL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
High pressure holding as we move into mid-week with generally dry
conditions across the region. A weak boundary attempts to move
into the state on Thursday but dissipates quickly with surface
high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard able to build back in to
close out the week. The high will shift south closer to Florida by
the weekend as the next low pressure and associated front pass to
the north across the northern tier of the United States into the
Atlantic off New England. Overall, the long term period should be
dry save for Atlantic showers during easterly wind flow and the
potential for sea breeze convection later in the week as moisture
returns.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening as
a cold front crosses South FL. MVFR ceilings are expected until
after the front crosses, then VFR is expected overnight through
the rest of the period. W/NW winds will become N/NE later today
after the front passes through.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Hazardous marine conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front
crossing the area, especially in the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay where
SCA winds are expected. SCEC conditions are expected in the Gulf and
Lake Okeechobee. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the front today. Conditions improve on Tuesday, however SCA
will continue for the Atlantic waters through Tuesday evening due to
lingering high seas.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024
There is an elevated risk of rip currents today at all South FL
beaches as a cold front crosses the area. A high risk of rip
currents is expected for the Atlantic beaches beginning on Tuesday
and lasting through much of the week as onshore flow returns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 70 79 68 80 / 40 10 0 0
West Kendall 67 81 65 81 / 40 10 0 10
Opa-Locka 68 81 67 81 / 40 10 0 0
Homestead 69 81 67 81 / 40 10 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 70 78 68 79 / 30 10 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 69 78 67 79 / 30 10 0 0
Pembroke Pines 69 81 67 82 / 30 10 0 0
West Palm Beach 66 78 65 79 / 10 10 0 0
Boca Raton 68 79 67 80 / 20 10 0 0
Naples 64 85 65 84 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
for AMZ630.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF