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000
FXUS62 KMFL 200757
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COASTAL AREAS UNDER WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW. HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.75 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -6C TO
-8C WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT A FAIRLY BROAD H5 SHORWAVE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE EXTRA COOLING ALOFT NEEDED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
AVERAGE 500 MB TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WITH
SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW...SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE LINGERING
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
WARMER WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CAPPING. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE.

AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE
LINGERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RETREAT EACH DAY ALLOWING HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA WHILE STILL REMAINING IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD AND VCTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS FOR ALL SITES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE REMAINING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  86  73 / 50 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  75  86  76 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI            86  74  87  75 / 50 40 50 30
NAPLES           88  71  88  71 / 30 30 40 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG