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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211632
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1232 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern this
afternoon across South Florida as it pushes further into the
western Atlantic. At the same time, a deepening mid level trough
will continue to push southeastward from the Midwest this
afternoon and through the Southeast tonight into Monday. At the
surface, cyclogenesis will take place off of the Carolina
coastline this afternoon and the surface frontal boundary
associated with this system will push through Northern and Central
Florida tonight. While most of South Florida will remain dry for
the rest of this afternoon and into tonight, isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze
mainly in Palm Beach and northern Broward County this afternoon.
Any showers or thunderstorms that develop will rapidly diminsh
after sunset this evening. Low temperatures tonight will generally
range from the mid 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to
around 70 across the east coast metro areas.

On Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will gradually
approach and move into South Florida as the day progresses. Out
ahead of this front, chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase especially during the afternoon hours. There remains a
conditional threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm as
the latest model soundings show forecasted CAPE values around 1000
J/KG, near 50 kts of 0-6 km shear, and lower to mid level lapse
rates getting close to 7 C/km. An approaching shortwave could
provide the extra mid to upper level support for a strong to severe
thunderstorm or two especially if it passes close to the area during
peak diurnal heating in the mid to late afternoon hours. If the
shortwave approach and passage does not coincide with peak diurnal
heating, the chances of strong to severe thunderstorm development
will be reduced. The highest chances of strong to severe
thunderstorm development still look to remain along and north of
Alligator Alley. High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid
80s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s and lower 90s
across the southern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Looking ahead to the long term, the forecast indicates a
persistent easterly wind pattern, occasionally becoming breezy.
This wind regime will contribute to consistently mild to warm
weather throughout the week, possibly showing a slight uptick in
temperatures toward the weeks end. Anticipate maximum temperatures
ranging from the low to mid 80s, while overnight lows will settle
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. SSE
winds will range between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon before
diminishing this evening across the east coast terminals. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible at KPBI, KFXE, and KFLL later
this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. At KAPF, winds
will increase out of the SW this afternoon as the Gulf breeze
pushes inland. These winds will diminish as the evening
progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A moderate to fresh south to southwesterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters this afternoon and into tonight. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Monday as a frontal
boundary approaches and moves into the area. Behind the front, winds
will become east northeasterly heading towards the middle of the
week across all local waters. A developing northeasterly swell in
the Atlantic behind the front could create hazardous marine
conditions heading into the middle of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm
Beaches this afternoon. The rip current risk could increase across
all Atlantic Coast beaches heading towards the middle of the week as
onshore flow develops along with an increasing northeasterly swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  88  71  81 /   0  50  10  10
West Kendall     68  89  68  84 /   0  40  10  10
Opa-Locka        71  89  70  83 /   0  50  10  10
Homestead        69  88  70  82 /   0  30  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  71  86  70  80 /   0  60  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  71  86  70  80 /   0  60  20  10
Pembroke Pines   71  89  70  84 /   0  60  10  10
West Palm Beach  69  84  68  79 /  10  60  20  10
Boca Raton       69  87  69  81 /  10  60  20  10
Naples           72  82  66  86 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CWC