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000
FXUS62 KMFL 150557
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SO THE SURFACE WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS
COULD VARY FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND
4-5 KNOTS. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD BE
DELAYED TO AROUND 16-17Z MAYBE EVEN LATER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR AFTER 16-17Z WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS...THIS COULD CHANGE ON 12Z TAF ISSUANCE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

UPDATE...
DID AN EARLIER UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE BROWARD COUNTY AREA AND THIS NOW BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY. THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH A
DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVING IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO BUILDS EAST.

AVIATION...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFT 15-17Z BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATE TO MENTION IN THE TERMINALS
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS AFT 15-17Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND...
A SOMEWHAT QUIET PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE
WEEKEND. WESTERLY FLOW TODAY HAS KEPT MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
BAY, ALTHOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE, BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
JOULES, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 IN MID LEVELS AND ABOVE 8 IN
LOW LEVELS, THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT FIRE OFF. HOWEVER,
THE MODEL SOUNDING FOR KMIA, SHOWS A CAP BUILDING AT AROUND 700MB
AND STRENGTHENING AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT MOST
CELLS TO LOW LEVEL CORES AND SOME TO JUST SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT THE
30 POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. BUT, MODELS SHOW IT WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THERE WILL STILL BE
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES
OR DEW POINTS MUCH. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT SOME, WHICH WILL
HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND A CAP AROUND 700 MB. THERE IS
ALSO A RIDGE BUILDING AT 500MB. PWATS BY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES. SO, MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEHIND THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX READINGS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS
NEAR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES UNTIL 20Z AND THEN VCTS UNTIL
23Z...BEFORE GOING BACK TO VCSH UNTIL 01Z AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR KAPF TAF SITE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT KFLL COULD SWING TO A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...DUE TO THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...
QUIETER WEATHER IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, THEN BECOME
MORE VARIABLE FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE GULF WATERS AND GENERALLY
EASTERLY FOR THE ATLANTIC.

FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WILL DRY OUT. THESE BOTH
WILL WORK TO HAMPER ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ANY CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND, AND WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE AS
WHOLE IS DRYING OUT, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  75  85  75 / 10 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  88  78 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI            90  77  88  77 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES           88  76  89  75 / 10 10 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD